Index insurance and climate risk: prospects for development and disaster management
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Climate and Society)
Climate and Society No. 2 takes a fresh look at the effectiveness of index insurance for reducing poverty and better managing climate risk. Case studies and pilot programs show that index insurance can effectively target a range of critical climate/poverty issues – from national-level food insecurity response to farm-level credit availability. These projects show great promise. They also have uncovered significant questions, that, if ignored during implementation, could lead to failure and even increase overall vulnerability. Climate and Society No. 2 captures these questions, examining current case studies, relying on expert scientific opinion to delineate the advances, opportunities, pitfalls and limitations faced in scaling up index insurance. In particular, the following questions are examined:
- How should index insurance be targeted to have the greatest impact on poverty?
- What are the hurdles to scale-up, and how can they be managed? Can climate science and information help overcome hurdles associated with climate change and basis risk?
- What are the roles of governments, NGOs and donors in scaling up index insurance for poverty reduction?
+ Full Document (PDF; 2.1 MB)
Is Personal Insecurity a Cause of Cross-National Differences in the Intensity of Religious Belief?
Source: Journal of Religion and Society
In conclusion, the current analysis ties together and explains two apparent paradoxes. First, the observation that modernization, in terms of average material wealth, appears linked to secularization in some countries but not others. The key to this paradox is that it is not simply average wealth, but also the distribution of wealth and the degree to which wealth is used to improve average personal security, which in large part determines religiosity. Second, the observation that religion, although generally believed to have a pro-socializing effect on the individual level, is associated on the macro level with societal ill health. This is most likely because personal religiosity is in part a response to adverse social environments, but that aggregate religiosity does not significantly ameliorate them.
School Meal Program Participation and Its Association with Dietary Patterns and Childhood Obesity
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
This study used data from the School Nutrition Dietary Assessment III Study to examine the dietary patterns of school meal program participants and nonparticipants and the relationship between school meal participation and children’s Body Mass Index (BMI). School Breakfast Program (SBP) participants ate more low-nutrient energy-dense (LNED) baked goods and more calories at breakfast than did nonparticipants. National School Lunch Program (NSLP) participants had lower intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and a lower percentage of calories from LNED foods and beverages than did nonparticipants. Overall, NSLP participation was not significantly related to students’ BMI, although participants were less likely to be overweight or obese than nonparticipants among Black students but more likely to be so among “other race” students. SBP participants had significantly lower BMI than did nonparticipants, possibly because SBP participants are more likely to eat breakfast and eat more at breakfast, spreading calorie intake more evenly over the course of the day.
+ Full Report (PDF; 819 KB)
See also: The School Breakfast Program: Participation and Impacts
Buy Local? The Geography of Successful and Unsuccessful Venture Capital Expansion (PDF; 189 KB)
Source: Harvard Business School Working Papers
We document geographic concentration by both venture capital firms and venture capital-financed companies in three cities-San Francisco, Boston, and New York. We find that firms open new satellite offices based on the success rate of venture capital-backed investments in an area. Geography is also significantly related to outcomes. Venture capital firms based in locales that are venture capital centers outperform, regardless of the stage of the investment. Ironically, this outperformance arises from outsized performance outside of the venture capital firms’ office locations, including in peripheral locations. Outperformance of non-local investments suggests that policy makers in regions without local venture capitalists might want to mitigate costs associated with established venture capitalists investing in their geographies rather than encouraging the establishment of new venture capital firms.
Mexican Immigrants: How Many Come? How Many Leave?
Source: Pew Hispanic Center
The flow of immigrants from Mexico to the United States has declined sharply since mid-decade, but there is no evidence of an increase during this period in the number of Mexican-born migrants returning home from the U.S., according to a new analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of government data from both countries.
The Mexican-born population in the U.S., which had been growing earlier in the decade, was 11.5 million in early 2009. That figure is not significantly different from the 11.6 million Mexican immigrants in 2008 or the 11.2 million in 2007.
The current recession has had a harsh impact on employment of Latino immigrants, raising the question of whether an increased number of Mexican-born residents are choosing to return home. This new Hispanic Center analysis finds no support for that hypothesis in government data from the United States or Mexico.
+ Full Report (PDF; 363 KB)
Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail
Source: RAND Corporation
Understanding why terrorist attacks succeed and fail is important for homeland security and counterterrorism planning. Delving into the literature on the topic, the authors make the contention that the past success or failure of a terrorist operation — or the likelihood that a future attack will succeed — can be best understood by thinking about the match or mismatch between three key sets of characteristics: (1) terrorist group capabilities and resources, (2) the requirements of the operation it attempted or is planning to attempt, and (3) the relevance and reliability of security countermeasures. They conclude that focusing attention on a small set of practical relationships will help to guide analysis of why past terrorist operations went as they did, and, more importantly, to help to identify opportunities to shape the chance of success or failure of future operations.
New Report - Asian Companies’ Thirst for African Oil
Source: Chatham House
A new report on the activities of Asian oil companies in Africa exposes the flaws in many general assumptions about Asian engagement with Africa. Thirst for African Oil: Asian National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola analyses the impact of these companies in the two leading oil producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and contrasts the stability and policy consistency that are features of the Angolan system with a more insecure and unstable system in Nigeria.
The report finds that fears in Western capitals about an Asian takeover in the Nigerian and Angolan oil sectors are ‘highly exaggerated’ - the oil majors still dominate production and hold the majority of reserves. Indeed, in Angola, there is growing fatigue among officials about the West’s fixation with China’s engagement with Angola.
Thirst for African Oil concludes that neither Nigeria nor Angola fits the stereotype of weak African states being ruthlessly exploited by resource hungry Asian tigers. In Nigeria’s case, a cash-hungry political class sought to profit from its Asian partners’ thirst for oil whilst in Angola the relationship with China was nurtured in a pragmatic, disciplined way to the mutual advantage of both countries.
The report also compares the experiences of Chinese companies with those of India, South Korea and Japan and assesses the growing competition between China and India where China’s deeper pockets have put a brake on India’s ambitions.
+ Full Report (PDF; 1.7 MB)
New/Recently Updated CRS Reports — International Relations (PDFs)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via OpenCRS)
+ Afghanistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance
+ Canada’s Financial System: an Overview
+ East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies
+ Ghana: Background and U.S. Relations
+ Guinea’s 2008 Military Coup and Relations with the United States
+ Human Rights in China: Trends and Policy Implications
+ Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA)
+ Iraq: Oil and Gas Legislation, Revenue Sharing, and U.S. Policy
+ Kyrgyzstans Closure of the Manas Airbase: Context and Implications
+ Latin America: Terrorism Issues
+ Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe
+ North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test: Implications of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874
+ Panama: Political and Economic Conditions and U.S. Relations
+ Peru: Current Conditions and U.S. Relations
+ Russia’s Economic Performance and Policies and Their Implications for the United States
+ Saudi Arabia: Background and U.S. Relations
+ Science, Technology, and American Diplomacy: Background and Issues for Congress
+ Sudan: Humanitarian Crisis, Peace Talks, Terrorism, and U.S. Policy
+ Tax Havens: International Tax Avoidance and Evasion
+ U.S. Accession to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC)
Post Office and Retail Postal Facility Closures: Overview and Issues for Congress (PDF; 269 KB)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via OpenCRS)
In common parlance, “post office” is used to refer to a wide variety of facilities operated by the United States Postal Service (USPS). In administrative practice, the USPS differentiates among several categories of postal facilities. Regarding one category of its facilities, the USPS announced in May 2009 that it was considering the closure of 3,105 of its 4,851 post office branches and stations. These facilities provide the public with postal services, such as stamp sales, post office boxes, and package shipping. Since the original announcement, the USPS has indicated that the number of possible closures may be more than 3,200.
This report provides (1) information on this recent announcement; (2) historical data on the number of post offices and other retail postal facilities; (3) an explanation of the legal authorities relevant to retail postal facility closures; (4) a review of the retail postal facility closure processes, including data on public appeals of closures, and H.R. 658’s proposed alterations to the processes; and (5) a concluding discussion that suggests observations and possible issues for Congress.
The USPS has cited financial duress as a reason for its proposed closure of up to 64% of its 4,851 post office branches and stations. According to the USPS, the post office branches and stations under consideration for closure are located in metropolitan areas. The USPS has not indicated whether any employees would lose their positions. Most postal employees are protected from layoffs by collective bargaining agreements.
As of FY2008, the USPS had 36,065 retail postal facilities, including post offices, post office branches and stations, community post offices, and contract postal units. This is 16.3% fewer than existed in 1970 when the USPS was established as an independent establishment of the executive branch. The closure of 3,105 branches and stations would reduce the current number of retail postal facilities by 8.4%.
By law, the USPS does not rely on appropriations to fund its operations. It must support itself through the sales of postal services. Congress has given the USPS considerable discretion to decide how many post offices to erect and where to place them. The USPS also is obliged to provide the public with adequate access to postal services.
Both federal law and the USPS’s rules prescribe a post office closure process. The U.S. Postal Service must notify the affected public and hold a 60-day comment period prior to closing a post office. Should it decide to close a post office, the public has 30 days to appeal the decision to the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC). Between FY1998 and FY2007, 25 of the approximately 676 post office closures were appealed to the PRC. The USPS uses an expedited version of this process to close post office branches, stations, and community post offices. On January 22, 2009, Representative Albio Sires introduced H.R. 658, which would require the USPS to employ the more lengthy post office closure process on all retail facility closures, and expand the current statutory public notification requirements.
Federal law requires the USPS to arrange its delivery and service network to most efficiently serve the public. However, the proposed closures may raise a number of issues, including public participation in the closure process, the effects on postal workers, and the possible effects of closures on communities. Congress may wish to consider a variety of measures to address these possible issues.
This report will be updated to reflect significant legislative action.
See also: The U.S. Postal Service and Six-Day Delivery: Issues for Congress
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update (PDF; 828 KB)
Source: Congressional Budget Office
From CBO Director’s Blog:
Today, CBO released an update of its long-term Social Security projections. The projections are qualitatively similar to those in previous CBO reports: Social Security’s annual revenues currently exceed its annual outlays, but as the baby-boom generation continues to age, growth in the number of Social Security beneficiaries will pick up, and absent legislative changes, outlays will increase much faster than revenues.
Total outlays (benefits plus administrative costs) equaled 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008, whereas the program’s dedicated revenues—from payroll taxes and from income taxes on the Social Security benefits of higher–income beneficiaries—equaled 4.8 percent of GDP. In the absence of legislative changes, spending for the program will climb to 6.1 percent of GDP by 2033, CBO projects.
The current recession is resulting in lower earnings and therefore lower Social Security revenues than would otherwise have occurred, but is not having as large an effect on benefit payments. Consequently, for the next few years, Social Security’s annual surpluses will be smaller or deficits larger than they would have been if economic growth had remained steady. In the long term, the recession will have little effect on revenues and outlays as a percentage of GDP, but the trust funds’ balances will be permanently lower. Primarily because of the worsened short-term economic outlook, CBO’s projection of the 75-year actuarial imbalance in the program is 0.5 percent of GDP, rather than the 0.4 percent we projected in 2008. As a share of taxable payroll, the projected shortfall is 1.3 percent. In other words, CBO estimates that if the Social Security payroll tax rate was increased immediately and permanently by 1.3 percentage points—from the current rate of 12.4 percent to 13.7 percent—the trust funds’ balance at the end of 2083 would equal projected outlays for the subsequent year.
Without changes in law, CBO expects that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2043. If that point is reached, the Social Security Administration will not have the legal authority to pay full benefits and the amounts that could be paid would be about 17 percent less than those scheduled under current law.
Annual 401(k) Benchmarking Survey: 2009 Edition
Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Against the challenging backdrop of the economic downturn, the results of this year’s annual 401(k) Benchmarking Survey reveal that plans are bent, but not broken. Employers continue to be concerned regarding employees’ financial preparations for retirement, sufficiently supporting their plans, and considering them important tools in overall benefit program design. However, the ongoing effects of the economic downturn are a source of anxiety for employers and employees alike. Combined with the uncertainty of what recovery will eventually mean to participants, it is understandable that both employers and employees are taking a “wait and see” approach to their 401(k) plans.
The Survey results offer a detailed snapshot of the 401(k) policies, features, objectives and expectations of hundreds of diverse employers. A total of 606 companies responded to the survey, representing a wide distribution of employers in terms of geography, size, and industry and ownership structure (publicly or privately held). Among the notable findings:
- 17 percent of plan providers surveyed indicated an uptick in deferral rate changes, hardship withdrawals, loans, and other similar activities.
- A third (38 percent) reported their employees decreased their deferral rates for 2009, with the majority (60 percent) holding steady at their current level of contribution.
- 12 percent of employers surveyed indicated an upswing in opt-outs from auto-enrollment programs.
- Almost one-fifth (19 percent, up 2 percentage points from last year) of plan sponsors believe “very few” of their employees will be financially prepared for retirement.
- More than three-quarters (79 percent) of employers surveyed are still fairly confident that their plan is effective for recruiting talent, and 68 percent say it helps with retention.
The survey sheds light on the collective “frame of mind” of employers. For the majority, plan designs have remained relatively consistent from last year. This comprehensive survey offers a detailed examination of 401(k) policies and practices, and how plan sponsors and participants intend to utilize these powerful retirement savings instruments.
Hat tip: PW
New GAO Report (PDFs)
Source: Government Accountability Office
1. International Trade: Four Free Trade Agreements GAO Reviewed Have Resulted in Commercial Benefits, but Challenges on Labor and Environment Remain
Highlights ||| Full Report
The Peak Oil Debate
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review
For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when “peak oil” will occur—the point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world’s energy supply still relies heavily on oil, and global energy demand is expected to rise steeply over the next twenty years.
This article seeks to bring the peak oil debate into focus. The author notes that a number of factors cloud the energy outlook: Estimates of remaining resources are typically given as a range of probabilities and are thus open to interpretation. Variations also occur in estimates of future oil production and in the ways countries report their reserve data.
+ Full Document (PDF; 1.6 MB)
New State-by-State Reports Show How Health Insurance Reform Will Benefit All Americans
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today released Stable and Secure Health Care for America, a series of new state-by-state reports outlining how health insurance reform will improve health care for all Americans. Sebelius announced the availability of the new reports as part of a Webcast — “Health Insurance Reform: What’s In It For You?” — where Sebelius and top HHS officials took questions from the American people and discussed the importance of health insurance reform. The new reports are available at www.HealthReform.gov.
“These reports show how health insurance reform will help Americans save money, get better care, strengthen their insurance if they already have it, and afford insurance if they don’t,” said Sebelius. “Every American will benefit when we pass health insurance reform.”
The reports released today show reform will:
- Lower health care costs;
- Increase health care choices by protecting what works and fixing what’s broken; and
- Assure quality, affordable care for all Americans.
