Missouri River Basin Flooding
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to support the flooding response along the Missouri River Basin. USACE has decrease flows from the upstream reservoirs at a gradual pace, with minimal modifications to the drawdown plan. There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings reported since July 11, 2011. The last Missouri River water gauge is expected to fall below Flood Stage and water levels are forecast to normalize in October.
North Dakota has 2 shelters open with 144 occupants.
Significant National Weather
Midwest
Thunderstorms continue to increase from the Plains to the western Great Lakes. Specifically, moderate to heavy rains is forecast across portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. The primary threats will include large hail and strong winds.
Northeast
Rain and isolated thunderstorms are still possible for much of region. An additional one-inch-or-greater rain accumulation is possible in portions of New Jersey, New York through northern New England. Dry and sunny weather is forecast the Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic areas.
West
Most of region will be dry; however, isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions Montana, southern Wyoming to eastern Arizona and New Mexico.
South
Most of the region will be dry; however, rain and thunderstorms are forecast in the Desert Southwest and Four Corners area. Triple-digit temperatures are expected in the Southern Plains for the next couple of days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Gert
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gert was located 410 miles northeast of Bermuda moving northeast near 22 mph. A turn toward the east–northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected to continue through Tuesday and Gert is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by Wednesday.
Area 1
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased considerably during the past several hours. Surface pressures are not falling any development, if any, is not likely to occur until it reaches the western Caribbean in a few days. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next 48 hours. This wave has a low (20%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 15–20 mph.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Six-E
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Six-E was located at 1,710 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this general motion will continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours
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Area 1
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, a broad low area of low pressure was centered about 625 miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico remains poorly organized. Upper-level winds do not appear to be favorable for additional development. This system has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northward near 10 to 15 mph.
Area 2
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, concentrated cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system was centered about 280 miles southeast of Acapulco Mexico. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form in the next 24 to 48 hours. This system has a medium (50%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Fire Activity
Monday, August 15, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (117 new fires)
New Large Fires: 4
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 11
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 1
States affected: VA, TX, TN, SD, MT, NM, CA, NV, WA and UT.
FMAG Approved – Horseshoe Fire, Texas
On August 15, 2011, the FEMA Region VI Regional Administrator approved a Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) for the State of Texas as a result of the Horseshoe Fire, Leander (Williamson County), TX. At the time of the request, the fire was reported to have burned 30 acres and threatened 300 homes, resulting in the evacuation of 530 residents. Ten homes have burned or are burning in the Eagle Lane Subdivision.
Disaster Declaration Activity
Indiana
Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-1997-DR was approved August 15, 2011, and adds Clay and Lawrence counties for Public Assistance.
Texas
Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-1999-DR was approved August 15, 2011, and adds Fisher County for Public Assistance, and Kent and Moore counties for Public Assistance (already designated for emergency protective measures [Category B], including direct Federal assistance).
Last Modified: Tuesday, 16-Aug-2011 08:11:58 EDT
