Former IMF Chief Economist Mussa Predicts 4 Percent Economic Growth for US and World Next Year with US Unemployment Dropping Below 9 Percent
Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics
While most economic forecasters expect a tepid recovery this year and next, a leading economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is predicting that GDP growth in the United States and the world will be considerably higher than generally anticipated. Michael Mussa, senior fellow at PIIE and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicts that real GDP growth in the world will be 4.2 percent in 2010 over 2009, and real GDP growth in the United States will be 4.0 percent from the middle of 2009 through the end of next year. This is only about two-thirds the pace of typical US recoveries from sharp recessions but it is nearly double the consensus predictions of other top forecasters.
The Mussa projections also imply a cumulative rise of US real GDP from the second quarter of 2009 to the final quarter of 2010 of almost 7 percent, or about $875 billion in 2005 real dollars. This is considerably higher than the August 2009 Blue Chip Survey, which projected a cumulative rise of barely more than 3 percent. Blue Chip forecasts suggest unemployment in the United States rising above 10 percent. Dr. Mussa projects it to peak at or a little below 10 percent this year and below 9 percent by the end of next year.
+ Full Document (PDF; 175 KB)
Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force: Interim Report (PDF; 347 KB)
Source: White House Council on Environmental Policy
The public meetings, roundtables, and website showcased a strong desire and enthusiasm among participants for a National Policy that provides clarity and direction regarding how the Nation will better care for the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes. A valuable and wide diversity of interests were represented, and several key themes emerged. While not exhaustive, these include:
- Support for adopting ecosystem-based management as a guiding principle, acknowledging regional differences, and practicing adaptive management;
- Support for embracing science-based decision-making and investing in ecosystem-based science, research, and ocean observations, including comprehensive research on the linkages among ecosystem health, human health, economic opportunity, national and homeland security, social justice, and environmental change, including climate change;
- Desire for improved coordination and collaboration across Federal, State, tribal, and local governments, and regional governance structures, and for improved transparency and public participation, while avoiding new layers of bureaucracy and unnecessary costs;
- Support for improving both formal and informal education about the ocean, our coasts, and the Great Lakes;
- Support for ensuring that policies are adequately funded; and
- Support for joining the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (the Law of the Sea Convention).
24 New MacArthur Fellows Announced
Source: MacArthur Foundation
The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation today named 24 new MacArthur Fellows for 2009. The new Fellows work across a broad spectrum of endeavors. They include an infectious disease physician, an ornithologist, a painter, a photojournalist, a bridge engineer, a climate scientist, an economist, a papermaker, a mental health lawyer, and a poet. All were selected for their creativity, originality, and potential to make important contributions in the future.
This past week, the recipients learned by a phone call out of the blue from the Foundation that they will each receive $500,000 in “no strings attached” support over the next five years. MacArthur Fellowships come without stipulations and reporting requirements and offer Fellows unprecedented freedom and opportunity to reflect, create, and explore. The unusual level of independence afforded to Fellows underscores the spirit of freedom intrinsic to creative endeavors. The work of MacArthur Fellows knows neither boundaries nor the constraints of age, place, and endeavor.
Obama Addresses More Popular U.N.
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
In recent years, the opening session of the U.N. General Assembly has frequently produced controversy. In a 2006 speech to the Assembly, for example, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez famously referred to then President George W. Bush as “the devil.” For his part, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has used his turns at the podium to speak strongly against Israel and the United States. But controversies aside, the United Nations remains a quite popular institution throughout much of the world. Indeed, its image has improved in many nations over the last couple of years. This is especially true in the United States, where attitudes toward the U.N. are more positive than they have been since early in this decade.
Working Mother 100 Best Companies 2009
Source: Working Mother
Our 2009 Working Mother 100 Best Companies are standing tough in their support of working families. Despite the layoffs, cutbacks and general economic maladies the country is facing, they continue to spend on health care, child care and work/life benefits.In fact, spending has actually increased at many of our winning companies, with about a third reporting that added funds have gone to new and improved programs. Now that’s change we can believe in!
Snapshots of Our Winners
How, when and where you work aren’t as important as the quality of the work you produce. That’s the clear message of this year’s Working Mother 100 Best Companies. A full 100 percent of them offer telecommuting and flextime schedules, 98 percent offer job-sharing, and 94 percent offer compressed workweeks. These companies are also committed to helping working parents with their child-care needs: 86 percent provide backup care, and 62 percent provide sick-child care. But perhaps even more important is the family-friendly culture they all continually strive to create. We salute these winners and their ongoing efforts to help employees manage their busy lives.
New Families and Work Institute Study Reveals Declines in the Health of the American Workforce
Source: Families and Work Institute
In the midst of the most vigorous national health care debate in 15 years, and at a time of heightened economic insecurity, new data on employers show that the health of employed American workers is trending downward in a number of important areas. The State of Health in the American Workforce, a report released today by the Families and Work Institute (FWI), finds that only 28% of employees today report that their overall health is “excellent,” down from 34% just six years ago. Perhaps surprisingly, men’s overall health has declined more rapidly than women’s. The report also sheds light on the relationship between an effective workplace and employee health, underlining the significant role that employers play beyond providing health insurance and wellness programs.
Among its many findings, the report reveals:
- 41% of employees report experiencing three or more indicators of stress sometimes, often or very often;
- One in three employees experiences one or more symptoms of clinical depression; and
- One in five employees has trouble falling asleep very often or fairly often and 31% awaken too early and have trouble falling back to sleep, also very often or fairly often.
- 21% are receiving treatment for high blood pressure and 14% are being treated for high cholesterol.
+ Full Report (PDF; 2.7 MB)
Fact Sheet on U.S. Missile Defense Policy: A “Phased, Adaptive Approach” for Missile Defense in Europe
Source: White House Press Office
President Obama has approved the recommendation of Secretary of Defense Gates and the Joint Chiefs of Staff for a phased, adaptive approach for missile defense in Europe. This approach is based on an assessment of the Iranian missile threat, and a commitment to deploy technology that is proven, cost-effective, and adaptable to an evolving security environment.
Starting around 2011, this missile defense architecture will feature deployments of increasingly-capable sea- and land-based missile interceptors, primarily upgraded versions of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), and a range of sensors in Europe to defend against the growing ballistic missile threat from Iran. This phased approach develops the capability to augment our current protection of the U.S. homeland against long-range ballistic missile threats, and to offer more effective defenses against more near-term ballistic missile threats. The plan provides for the defense of U.S. deployed forces, their families, and our Allies in Europe sooner and more comprehensively than the previous program, and involves more flexible and survivable systems.
Influenza Preparedness: Two Reports From the HHS OIG (PDFs)
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General
+ State and Local Pandemic Influenza Preparedness: Medical Surge
This report determines the extent to which selected States and localities have prepared for a medical surge in response to an influenza pandemic and have conducted and documented exercises that test their medical surge preparedness. We found that although the selected States and localities that we reviewed are making progress in preparing for a medical surge, more needs to be done to improve States’ and localities’ ability to respond to an influenza pandemic.
A pandemic will affect much of the country at the same time, so medical resources-such as hospital beds, medical equipment, and personnel-will likely be scarce. The ability to rapidly respond to an increased demand for medical resources is often referred to as a medical surge. The recent public health emergency caused by an outbreak of human cases of H1N1 influenza has highlighted the need for States and localities to be prepared for a medical surge.
We found that all of the 10 selected localities that we reviewed had established partnerships to prepare for a medical surge; however, the degree to which coordination occurred varied. We also found that fewer than half of the selected localities had started to recruit medical volunteers, and none of the five States that we reviewed had implemented an electronic system to manage these volunteers. Similarly, all 10 localities had acquired limited medical equipment for a pandemic, but only three of the five States had electronic systems to track available beds and equipment. In addition, most of the selected localities were in the early stages of planning for alternate care sites, and most had not identified guidelines for altering triage, admission, and patient care during a pandemic. Finally, although all of the selected localities conducted medical surge exercises, none consistently documented the lessons learned.
Based on the findings of this report, we recommend that ASPR, in collaboration with CDC: (1) work with States and localities to improve their efforts within each of the five components of medical surge that we reviewed, (2) ensure that States and localities consistently document the lessons learned from preparedness exercises that address medical surge, (3) address the issue of legal protections for medical professionals and volunteers who respond to public health emergencies, (4) facilitate the sharing of information and emerging practices among States and localities, and (5) provide training and technical assistance to States and localities on key issues. ASPR concurred with all five of our recommendations.
+ Local Pandemic Influenza Preparedness: Vaccine and Antiviral Drug Distribution and Dispensing
We found that while the majority of selected localities had begun planning to distribute and dispense vaccines and antiviral drugs, more needs to be done to improve localities’ ability to respond to an influenza pandemic. In June 2009, the World Health Organization raised the pandemic influenza alert level to Phase 6 and declared the start of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. To assist States and localities in planning for an influenza pandemic, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) provides guidance regarding vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing. HHS also recommends that States and localities exercise their pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing plans and collaborate with community partners to develop and exercise these plans. While the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) annually reviews State-level pandemic influenza planning, it does not directly assess local pandemic influenza planning. Therefore, based on HHS guidance documents and input from CDC and ASPR, we reviewed 89 preparedness items within eight planning areas (i.e., components) to determine the extent to which 10 selected localities had prepared to distribute and dispense pandemic influenza vaccines and antiviral drugs.
We found that selected localities had not addressed in their planning documents most of the distribution and dispensing components and preparedness items identified in HHS pandemic influenza guidance that we reviewed. Across the eight components, localities’ planning documents generally were not actionable. That is, plans did not generally identify the organization or individuals responsible for carrying out specific actions; the sources of personnel that would be necessary to staff distribution and dispensing positions; and/or include valid, detailed formal agreements with partnering agencies. In addition, while all selected localities conducted at least one exercise related to vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing, most did not consistently create After Action Reports and Improvements Plans for these exercises. Finally, all selected localities collaborated with different types of community partners to develop and exercise their plans to distribute and dispense vaccines and antiviral drugs during an influenza pandemic.
We recommend that CDC work with States to improve local pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing preparedness by: (1) determining why localities appear to be in the early stages of planning, (2) prioritizing the planning areas where States should focus any carryover or future funding, and (3) placing special emphasis on ensuring that localities develop actionable plans. Further, CDC should coordinate with States to ensure that localities consistently document exercises with After Action Reports and Improvement Plans to enhance their pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing preparedness. Finally, CDC should facilitate the sharing of pandemic influenza planning and response information and emerging promising practices.
CDC agreed with two of the three recommendations. Specifically, CDC agreed to work with States to encourage localities to develop After Action Reports and Improvement Plans for their preparedness exercises. Additionally, CDC agreed that States and localities should use the Lessons Learned Information Sharing Web site to share planning resources. CDC did not indicate whether it agreed with the first recommendation, but noted that it plans to use some of OIG’s suggested actions to address this recommendation. For example, CDC acknowledged the need for States to prioritize some of the planning areas OIG identified and agreed that localities need to develop actionable vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and dispensing plans.
The FDIC’s Role in the Monitoring of IndyMac Bank (PDF; 1 MB)
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of Inspector General
In its role as insurer, the FDIC identified and monitored risks that IMB presented to the Deposit Insurance Fund by participating with the OTS in on-site examinations of IMB in 2001, 2002, 2003, and again shortly before IMB failed in 2008 and through the completion of required reports and analysis of IMB based upon information from FDIC monitoring systems. FDIC risk committees also raised broad concerns about the impact that an economic slowdown could have on institutions like IMB that were heavily involved in securitizations and subprime lending. Nevertheless, FDIC officials consistently concluded that despite its high- risk profile, IMB posed an ordinary or slightly more than ordinary level of risk to the insurance fund. It was not until August 2007 that the FDIC began to understand the implications that the historic collapse of the credit market and housing slowdown could have on IMB and took additional actions to evaluate IMB’s viability.
World Development Report 2010
Source: World Bank
From press release:
Developing countries can shift to lower-carbon paths while promoting development and reducing poverty, but this depends on financial and technical assistance from high-income countries, says a new World Bank report released today. High-income countries also need to act quickly to reduce their carbon footprints and boost development of alternative energy sources to help tackle the problem of climate change.
Federal Science and Engineering Support to Universities, Colleges, and Nonprofit Institutions: FY 2007
Source: National Science Foundation
Due to significant errors in data reported by the Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), this report has been revised. Correcting for these errors reduced the total R&D obligations for George Washington University by $83.4 million, revising its ranking from 51st to 92nd and moved $46.2 million in R&D obligations from the University of Central Florida to the University of South Florida. University of South Florida’s ranking has been revised from 112th to 70th, and University of Central Florida’s ranking has been revised from 86th to 130th. See table 1 for revised rankings of institutions affected by these corrections. Data for 2007 and prior years may be subject to further review and revisions.
NRDC Releases New Economic Data on Clean Energy Legislation
Source: Natural Resources Defense Council
“The American Clean Energy and Security Act is a win-win for our economy and our environment. Under ACES, there will be more jobs, less global warming pollution and greater security, all for less than the cost of a postage stamp a day. These are the conclusions of ‘A Clean Energy Bargain,’ an analysis released today by NRDC.”
“Under ACES we will invest less money in polluting fossil fuels and more in clean energy and energy efficiency. The report found that ACES will drive investments in clean energy and energy efficiency of more than $300 billion by 2030. This is good news because the Political Economy Research Institute recently concluded that clean energy investments create 3.2 times as many jobs as fossil fuel investments.
“A Clean Energy Bargain’ concludes that implementing ACES will cost American households an average of 25 cents per day. This is consistent with previous estimates from the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration and the Congressional Budget Office.
“This report found that climate legislation will change where the United States gets its oil. Limits on global warming pollution will reduce oil demand and increase the use of carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery. This will lead to a reduction in U.S. oil imports by as much as five million barrels a day.”
+ Full Document (PDF; 363 KB)
Global Warming Tax Costs Revealed in FOIA Treasury Dept Documents, CEI Analysis Confirms Massive Tax on Energy
Source: Competitive Enterprise Institute
Internal Treasury Department documents released this week confirm the Obama administration’s expectations for a nationwide global warming “cap and trade” plan. The documents were obtained by CEI Senior Fellow Christopher Horner through a Freedom of Information Act request.
Internally, Treasury indicates it expects that the sort of plan that the president is calling for – a plan that either immediately auctions off carbon dioxide emission permits or sells nearly all after a few years of giving industry most of its permits for free – would bring from $100-200 billion per year in revenue for the government.
That is money taken either directly from household and business energy consumers, according to the Congressional Budget Office when it was headed by Obama’s budget director, Peter Orszag. (See Orszag statement.) Those billions translate into between one and two thousand dollars per year for the average household.
+ FOIA documents from the U.S. Treasury (PDF: 873 KB))
AFP Exposes Special Interests Behind Waxman-Markey
Source: Americans for Prosperity
AFP just released a study detailing the special interest influence used to grease H.R. 2454’s passage through the U.S. House. The policy paper examines how campaign contributions, pork-barrel projects and free carbon emission allowances were all used to buy the votes of hesitant representatives. The paper also looks at how Wall Street trading houses, electricity producers and the Left’s political allies all stand to benefit from the Waxman-Markey energy tax bill.
With the Senate beginning its consideration of a cap-and-trade scheme, it’s important that people know about the corrupt process that shoved this bill through the House. While, there are plenty of studies that explain the devastating economic impact this bill will have on the country; we wanted to expose the special interests that wrote the bill and lobbied for its passage.
+ Full Report (PDF; 950 KB)
Academic Medical Centers at a Tipping Point
Source: Deloitte Development LLC
Academic Medical Centers (AMCs) are at a tipping point: While driven to serve their tripartite mission of teaching, research and patient care, they are susceptible to myriad pressures that endanger their long-term viability.
A new report by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, “Academic Medical Centers: The Tipping Point,” shares recent research about the pressures facing each element of Academic Medical Centers’ tripartite mission – pressures that are being compounded by the unprecedented effects of health cost containment, health reform and the recession.
The Deloitte report also offers a perspective on the opportunities, strategies and innovations that some AMCs have pursued and the questions that will drive their future sustainability.
We believe that academic medicine plays a key role in a reformed U.S. health care system, but transformational change is essential to safeguard its future. Failure to respond endangers the important health care sector that AMCs represent – one with a $451 billion economic impact and jobs for one of every 48 wage earners.
+ Full Report (PDF; 863 KB)
