Thursday, January 14, 2010
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse 2012
Currencies / US Dollar Dec 29, 2009 - 03:19 PMDevolution of the USD 2012? - As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.
Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left.
I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I’m sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week’s time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It’s not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left.
Wait, that coincides with 2012!
It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute – that takes us right to 2012!…That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask ‘Will the USD collapse in 2012?’ and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012.
I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies…
Let me interpret that last paragraph for you – The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness – around the world…
If it fits, then it fits.
Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it’s the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence.
Interesting.
Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about ‘religious bunkum prophecies’ or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I’m not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods…
So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where ‘if it works, it must be true, don’t leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction’. That’s what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???)
The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let’s not digress too much.
I have various metrics I’m using to come to this ‘USD has 2 years left’ proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty.
What would happen in a USD collapse?
- The US and Western economies will all face insolvency simultaneously, with the US first in line.
- The entire Western industrial/consumer/credit economy will fall apart so fast it will make your head spin. The supply chain will stop and stores will empty in less than 3 days.
- The USD will fall over 50% in one week’s time, till it temporarily stabilizes before its final last gasp. Remember the Lehman panic over those several weeks? You have seen nothing yet.
- Worldwide currency panic will set in paralyzing what’s left of the world economy, that means the ‘emerging markets’ stop dead too.
- China has a revolution, or goes into military mode, which is worse.
- A one world currency will be demanded and implemented, and it better be fast too since the cities only have 3 days food on average…(by the way I know for a fact that a one world currency can be implemented electronically and turned on in one hour, if they wanted!)
And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It’s dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%!
Don’t think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year.
So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so.
It will be a dark time worldwide.
There is a lot more to say here. Needless to say that will be in our future newsletters for paid subscribers. If you noticed, we have not been publishing as many public articles, and one reason is that our paid people get a great deal more of this analysis than the public articles offer. Obviously. And we have quite a batch of recent newsletters out, that will most definitely intrigue you. They are my best stuff to date.
Lastly, I would like to point out that we have made some astounding predictions over the last two years about the USD and gold and other currencies. If you stop by our site, we’ll have a page showing you them (up hopefully today). We do not make many predictions like that, maybe 2 or 3 a year. But our last batch was quite on the money… you’ll see when you take a look.
By Christopher Laird PrudentSquirrel.com
Monday, December 28, 2009
GoldSeek.com | “The Last Time That Happened Was During the Great Depression”
December 28, 2009Until a few years ago, running a U.S. city was pretty easy. You added services when voters asked, you hired more workers (who were likely to vote for you come election time) to provide the services, and you promised lavish retirement benefits to cops and teachers who weren’t going to retire until long after you left office. If tax revenues didn’t cover day-to-day operations, no problem; Washington was sending plenty of aid to make up the difference.
No longer. The gap between what a typical city gets from sales and property taxes and what it owes its employees is a now a chasm that even trillions in federal stimulus money can’t fill. So for the first time in most Americans’ memory, cities actually have to live within their means. The result, according to today’s Wall Street Journal, isn’t pretty.
As Slump Hits Home, Cities Downsize Their Ambitions
MESA, Ariz. — The police department in this city of 470,000 has lost about 50 officers, and is hiring lower-paid civilians to do investigative work. The Little League has to pay the city $15 an hour to turn on ball-field lights. The library now closes its main location on Sundays, and city offices are open only four days a week. This holiday season, the city didn’t put up festive lights along the downtown streets.
Mesa’s tax receipts, depressed by the recession, will likely come back one of these days. But Mayor Scott Smith doesn’t believe city services will return to prerecession levels for a long time, if ever. “We are redefining what cities are going to be,” says Mr. Smith, a Republican who ran a homebuilding company before his election last year.
Months after many economists declared the recession over, cities are only now beginning to feel the full brunt of it. Recessions often take longer to trickle down to local government, in part because it takes time for the sales and property-tax revenues on which municipalities depend to catch up with a depressed economy.
But the sting this time around is expected to be far more acute and long-lasting than in previous recessions. Projected deficits are especially deep in some places and tax revenues could be pinched for years as consumers turn thrifty and real-estate prices remain diminished. That means the relatively painless measures such as borrowing, deferred payments to pension plans and scattered layoffs that have been used during past episodes of fiscal strain are unlikely to be effective in some cities.
In the decade through 2008, municipal tax revenues grew at a rate of 6.5% a year, faster than the overall economy’s 5.1%, unadjusted for inflation. Those revenues have started to slip. A national tally isn’t yet available, but state tax collections fell 11% across 44 states in the third quarter of 2009, from the same period a year ago, according to a report by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York. In a recent survey by the National League of Cities, 88% of city budget officers said they were less able to meet their financial needs than they were a year ago.
The specter of lean budgets for years ahead has some of the nation’s 89,000 local governments rethinking what services to provide and how to pay for them. From Mesa to Philadelphia, this means some combination of higher taxes and fewer services. In some places, it means more and higher fees for permits and recreation programs. Museums, pools and the like are relying more on income from fees charged to users and from nonprofit organizations, and less on taxpayers.
These cuts matter greatly to the economy at large. Local government spending accounts for 8.8% of the nation’s total output, including everything from employee salaries to snowplows. The sector employs one in nine workers — 14.5 million in all, or about 8 million in education and 6.5 million elsewhere. More Americans work for cities, counties and school boards than in all of manufacturing.
More likely to be union members, government workers tend to be better paid and have greater job security than many of the taxpayers who pay their salaries. Benefits are often better, too. Virtually all full-time state and local workers have access to retirement benefits; in the private sector, about 76% of full-time employees had retirement benefits. Employment in local government peaked in August 2008 and has fallen by 117,000 since then, or less than 1%, compared with a 6.3% fall in private employment from its December 2007 peak.
In Philadelphia, where sales and corporate taxes have taken a hit, budget cuts are limited by the large fixed costs of city workers’ pension and benefits plans. About one fifth of the city’s $3.7 billion budget goes for health-care and pension costs for current and retired workers. The city’s overall tax revenue has fallen 6% over the past two years, while pension costs have risen 6% and health-care costs 11%. Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, a Democrat, is pushing union employees to pay more of their health costs and is looking to move new employees to a less generous pension plan.
The city has cut about 800 positions in the past year, mostly through attrition, and suspended some services citizens used to take for granted. It has stopped providing snow removal on some smaller, one-way streets, except in emergencies, and it suspended mechanical leaf pick-up in some spots. This fall and early winter, older, tree-lined neighborhoods like Mt. Airy and Chestnut Hill were littered with rotting leaves.
Anyone who wants to have a parade in Philadelphia now has to pick up the tab. The city’s Mummers Parade, where 10,000 or so string bands and other performers don bright costumes and march up Broad Street on New Year’s Day, won’t receive the $336,000 in prize money that used to go to the best string band and other parade participants. The last time that happened was during the Great Depression.
Some thoughts:
- Local governments have been able to hang on this long mainly because the federal government has borrowed trillions of dollars and handed some of it to mayors and city councils. Since federal borrowing is functionally the same as city borrowing — in the sense that U.S. citizens living in towns or cities eventually have to pay it back — this can go on only as long as someone out there is willing to lend us the money. Which is to say as long as the dollar holds up.
- Right now the dollar is holding up pretty well, so the Feds will almost certainly step in with more aid for local governments in 2010. This will prevent wholesale cuts in public employment and pension plans, but once again at the cost of bigger problems down the road.
- In the end we’ll run out of money because our obligations exceed our income. And that means massive cuts in state and local services that First World citizens have come to see as a birthright. Pools and ball fields that used to be free will now charge users. Streets that used to be plowed after a snowstorm will be left untouched. Permits and licenses that used to cost a few dollars will now cost many. After-hours school programs will end, putting low-income kids on the street. Libraries will be closed most of the time. Fewer police will be there when needed. And let’s not even think about what the DMV will be like.
- These service cuts won’t come smoothly. Public sector wages and benefits now vastly exceed those of comparable private sector workers and the public sector unions won’t give up their advantages without a fight. So on the way to fewer services there will be strikes and slowdowns and tax increases. Things will get messy.
- But the cuts will come. TINA, as Margaret Thatcher used to say: There Is No Alternative. The price of having it too easy for the past three decades will be having it a lot harder for the next three.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Golden Jackass - Jim Willie CB | FULL CIRCLE OF GOVT DEBT DEFAULT

December 16, 2009
READ MORE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie121509.html
Thursday, December 17, 2009
BusinessInsider.com | China's Dumping Of The Dollar Has Begun
China, once a proud holder of United States post-World War II debt, is getting scared. For years the People's Republic has bought U.S. Treasuries, eventually becoming the largest holder of U.S. debt ($799 BILLION to be exact!). Those days are long gone, though.
During 2009, China hasn't been buying many Treasuries and has been unloading dollars in a way that makes Geithner shiver at night.
And other big U.S. debt carriers like Japan may follow suit if confidence is lost.
This presentation, courtesy of RBS, takes a deeper look into China's holdings and associated volumes since 2005. Get ready for shock and awe.
Click here to view the presentation -->http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-unloading-us-dollars-rapidly-2009-12
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony
... The GCC also agreed to create a joint military strike force – akin to the EU’s rapid reaction force – to tackle threats such as the incursion of Yemeni Shiite rebels into Saudi territory earlier this year.
This is a major breakthrough after years of deadlock on defence cooperation.
The Sunni Gulf states are deeply concerned about the great power ambitions of Shiite Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons, to the point where the theme of a possible war between Iran and a Saudi-led constellation of states has crept into the media debate.
They nevertheless repeated on Tuesday that “any military action against Iran” by Western powers would be unacceptable.
Monday, December 14, 2009
ZeroHedge.com | Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression
12/14/2009John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.
Williams does not mince his words:
The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.
And even as Bernanke continues existing in a factless vacuum where he sees no asset bubbles, Williams takes aim at the one party almost exclusively responsible for the economic carnage that will soon transpire:
The crises have been generated out of and are centered on the United States financial system, triggered by the collapse of debt excesses actively encouraged by the Greenspan Federal Reserve. Recognizing that the U.S. economy was sagging under the weight of structural changes created by government trade, regulatory and social policies -- policies that limited real consumer income growth -- Mr. Greenspan played along with the political and banking systems. He made policy decisions to steal economic activity from the future, fueling economic growth of the last decade largely through debt expansion.
The Greenspan Fed pushed for ever-greater systemic leverage, including the happy acceptance of new financial products, which included instruments of mis-packaged lending risks, designed for consumption by global entities that openly did not understand the nature of the risks being taken. Complicit in this broad malfeasance was the U.S. government, including both major political parties in successive Administrations and Congresses.
As with consumers, the federal government could not make ends meet while appeasing that portion of the electorate that could be kept docile by ever-expanding government programs and increasing government spending. The solution was ever-expanding federal debt and deficits.
Purportedly, it was Arthur Burns, Fed Chairman under Richard Nixon, who first offered the advice that helped to guide Alan Greenspan and a number of Administrations. The gist of the wisdom imparted was that if you ran into problems, you could ignore the budget deficit and the dollar. Ignoring them did not matter, because doing so would not cost you any votes.
Back in 2005, I raised the issue of a then-inevitable U.S. hyperinflation with an advisor to both the Bush Administration and Fed Chairman Greenspan. I was told simply that "It's too far into the future to worry about."
Indeed, pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations. Yet, the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out.
Looking at the events over the past year demonstrates that Williams is not just being a drama queen.
John Galt | The True Danger Lurking Behind 0.00% Treasury Yields and The 1-3-6 Rule Part I
The 1-3-6 Idea
Many a moon ago, a strange comment was made to me by what might be called a ’sage’ in the idea of trading in markets of all types. If it appeared that too much money was pouring into one particular investment or vehicle, then something was wrong with the efficient functioning of that market. Forever and a day I ignored this sage and probably should not have. Think about what we have witnessed since the great “crisis” began. In February of 2007 when the first cracks became evident that our subprime society was filled with cracks and that an earthquake was imminent with the failure of several medium sized mortgage lenders, the notion that we should expect an all out collapse was there and certain celebrity investors and talking heads made billions from the idiocy and misfortunes of those who thought that nothing could be whipped into something profitable and the residue they wiped on the curb by that fire hydrant was actually gold.
Oops again.
So when things started to shift violently, I started to listen to this sage who told me in 2007 “watch the short end” and no, that was not related to something pornographic or a hook-up with Tiger at a disco, this referred to the Treasury markets. When one looks at the charts for the three securities at the short end, the 1, 3, and 6 month bills, you understand as to what I am referring to and why I felt the need to call Glenn Beck last Thursday and warn him that something historic was on the verge of happening again.
G7 economies approach the ugly moment of transition- massive deficit spending & liquidity creation by central banks cannot be long maintaintained
UPI | Walker's World: Beware the Greeks
December 14, 2009
... The G7 economies are approaching the ugly moment of transition. The massive deficit spending by states and liquidity creation by central banks cannot be long maintained. They are running out of ammunition. Within the next six to 18 months, they will have to rein in the deficit spending and increase interest rates, and hope that the private economy will by then have recovered sufficiently to restore growth. It is very questionable whether the private economy is healthy enough to do this. And in the case of weak economies like Greece, governments will then face an ugly choice between depression and default.
The crisis may come sooner, because of the growing threat of a major currency crisis. Since China will not revalue its currency and alleviate the problem of chronic imbalances, the United States is letting the dollar fall against more flexible currencies. This is pushing the burden of adjustment onto the euro and the yen in a way that is becoming unsustainable for eurozone exporters.
A currency crisis would be disastrous and probably trigger a wave of populist protectionism against Chinese exports. That is the main reason why the "recovery" is so unconvincing and also why gold remains above $1,000 an ounce. The risks are ahead are as daunting in Greece as they are in Denmark ... READ MORE
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/2009/12/14/Walkers-World-Beware-the-Greeks/UPI-58431260799200/
Friday, December 11, 2009
BusinessInsider.com | America's Partners Are Now Treating Us Like A Third-World Country
Two recent stories regarding America and its global partners jump out to us:
- In Germany they're freaking out because all the good manufacturing jobs are coming to America -- courtesy of our super-weak dollar.
- And in China, they're slapping tarrifs on our steel, accusing us of dumping.
That's right.
The rest of the world now views us the way we, for decades, viewed the rest of the world. We complained about them getting our good manufacturing jobs, and dumping cheap-ass steel onto our shores, undercutting ours.
The world's so-called reserve currency has weakened to the point that we're regarded as a pesky third-world country, undermining developed mature economies.
Keep an eye out for this.
Monday, December 7, 2009
PR Newswire | Unemployment Decline an Illusion, Financial System Collapse Ahead
FORT LEE, N.J., Dec. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- The National Inflation Association today released the following statement to its www.inflation.us members:
"On Friday it was announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the U.S. unemployment rate in November declined from 10.2% to 10%. While the mainstream media would like you to believe we have seen a peak in unemployment and the worst of the economic crisis is behind us, we know that this dip in the unemployment number is phony and the recession is only beginning.
Although the unemployment number dipped in November, we still lost 11,000 nonfarm jobs. Unemployment fell by 0.2% only because the civilian labor force shrunk in November by 98,000 people. This means more people are becoming discouraged and giving up looking for jobs. When you combine both short and long-term discouraged workers who aren't included in the labor force along with those who are underemployed with part-time jobs, real unemployment in the U.S. today is nearly 22%.
The most important area of employment to look at is manufacturing jobs. Increasing manufacturing is the only way for our country to truly recover and build real wealth, because it will allow us to cut down on inflation by exporting real products instead of the money we print. Unfortunately, the U.S. lost 41,000 manufacturing jobs in November and has lost 2.1 million manufacturing jobs over the last two years.
The main areas of increasing employment in November were health care and government jobs, which are non-productive jobs that are increasing global imbalances. These jobs are not being created due to a strengthening economy, they are being created due to our artificial, temporary and destructive stimulus. They are forcing our country to get deeper into debt and create massive inflation ..... (full story)
Source:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unemployment-decline-an-illusion-financial-system-collapse-ahead-78692112.html
Saturday, November 28, 2009
The Dollar Bubble -YouTubeVideo
Friday, November 27, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Campaign For Liberty - By Peter Schiff | Our Financial Dependence on China - The Truth Behind China's Currency Peg
November 21, 2009 -......However, this does not mean that I want the Chinese to maintain the status quo. In the long run, the U.S. economy will benefit from the abandonment of a system that guarantees our dependency and inevitable downfall. De-pegging will force the hand of U.S. politicians toward pursuing realistic policies. The Chinese will come to their senses eventually because it is in their interest to do so. Meanwhile, the longer the peg is maintained, the more indebted we become, the more out of balance our economy grows, and the more our industrial base shrivels. In short, the longer they wait, the steeper our fall.
A weaker dollar will price many imported products beyond the reach of most Americas, giving our hollowed out manufacturing sector the opportunity to rebound. However, if our industry has any chance of getting off the mat, we must reduce taxes, repeal regulations, reform our cumbersome legal system, and, most importantly, replenish our savings to finance the necessary capital investment.
If we position ourselves to deal with the consequences, tough love from China will provide a path back to genuine economic growth. However, if our politicians continue to misread the problem and push us deeper in the red, the inevitable 'rebalancing' could be truly ruinous.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
StockCharts.com | Recent chart - Tracks the price of gold against the value of the U.S. dollar
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
UPI | Yuan currency trade accepted in Indonesia
The service was launched by the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp. in Jakarta Wednesday. ASEAN stands for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Other ASEAN countries using the yuan (Renminbi) trade settlement service are Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam, China's official Xinhua news agency reported.
The service is part of China's cautious effort to create a bigger global role for the yuan as the weakened U.S. dollar continues to be questioned as a world reserve currency. China holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves of more than $2.1 trillion and is also the largest holder of U.S. debt.
"The Chinese government's policy to allow Renminbi as trade payment currency would improve the trade between the two countries," Vincent Sugianto, HSBC's head of trade, said. FULL STORY
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Reuters | World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the U.S. should not be complacent about the dollar
SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - World Bank President Robert Zoellick said on Wednesday that the U.S. dollar's role as a reserve currency was "relatively secure", but the Chinese yuan will provide an alternative over time.
"Over the next 10-15 years, you will firstly see renminbi to be internationalised and provide an alternative," he said at a World Bank conference in Singapore.


