US delays threaten Copenhagen consensus
- 6 October 2009
But progress has been slower than some had hoped for, and this is likely to dampen the potential for concrete achievement at the upcoming Copenhagen climate conference. Indeed, Barack Obama's energy advisor Carol Browner this week admitted December will be too soon to expect the President's signature on any climate-change bill. But it does underline the sea change in US attitudes towards reducing emissions, something it can reference in Copenhagen as proof of its commitment.
This makes it more likely that Copenhagen will end with no formal agreement on a global cap-and-trade initiative to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. But reaching a firm consensus on emissions reductions is more important than trying to shoehorn many different competing interests into one scheme - even though mere consensus would be viewed by many commentators as a failure.
Indeed, the Obama administration is acting already. It has empowered the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate emissions from power stations and industry, forcing them to adopt clean technologies or pay penalties for not doing so. Further down the line, a move to cap and trade in the US is still on the cards - and it would give a huge confidence boost to the clean-technology industry, accelerate demand for clean technologies, and create a ready market for emissions reductions certificates issued in the developing world.
That in turn would provide a huge fillip to Climate Exchange, which already offers trading facilities for various classes of greenhouse gases and derivatives thereof through the Chicago and European Climate Exchanges. It is the dominant player in the established European Emissions Trading Scheme and is well positioned to grab significant market share in the US when a federal scheme is enacted.
Other possible beneficiaries include Trading Emissions, the carbon project developer whose fate appears closely tied to the price of carbon, which would likely appreciate in the event of a US system being adopted.
