October 27, 2009 - El Niño has brought Floridians a calmer hurricane season, but the winter could be a much different story.
Think downpours, floods and tornadoes.
"We're going to have a very active winter," said Daniel Noah, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay.
No hurricanes have threatened Florida this season, which ends Nov. 30. But tornadoes have killed more people in Florida than hurricanes in recent years, so the National Weather Service is trying to get the word out about the flip side of El Niño.
El Niño forms every three to five years as warm surface waters in the Pacific Ocean shift from the west to east. Those warmer waters form upper atmospheric storms that can thwart hurricanes forming in the Atlantic.
But they can also cause havoc during the winter months.
This El Niño started in July and weakened eight hurricanes, Noah said. Now considered a moderate El Niño, it is expected to strengthen in the coming months, producing hazardous weather.
The opposite of El Niño — La Niña — occurs when surface water in the eastern Pacific cool to below average temperatures. That produces warmer winters, drier summers and a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
The last El Niño was during 2006 and 2007, and it led to the Christmas Day tornadoes that damaged about 100 homes in Pasco County. FULL STORY
