Currencies / US Dollar Dec 29, 2009 - 03:19 PMDevolution of the USD 2012? - As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.
Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left.
I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I’m sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week’s time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It’s not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left.
Wait, that coincides with 2012!
It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute – that takes us right to 2012!…That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask ‘Will the USD collapse in 2012?’ and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012.
I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies…
Let me interpret that last paragraph for you – The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness – around the world…
If it fits, then it fits.
Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it’s the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence.
Interesting.
Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about ‘religious bunkum prophecies’ or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I’m not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods…
So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where ‘if it works, it must be true, don’t leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction’. That’s what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???)
The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let’s not digress too much.
I have various metrics I’m using to come to this ‘USD has 2 years left’ proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty.
What would happen in a USD collapse?
- The US and Western economies will all face insolvency simultaneously, with the US first in line.
- The entire Western industrial/consumer/credit economy will fall apart so fast it will make your head spin. The supply chain will stop and stores will empty in less than 3 days.
- The USD will fall over 50% in one week’s time, till it temporarily stabilizes before its final last gasp. Remember the Lehman panic over those several weeks? You have seen nothing yet.
- Worldwide currency panic will set in paralyzing what’s left of the world economy, that means the ‘emerging markets’ stop dead too.
- China has a revolution, or goes into military mode, which is worse.
- A one world currency will be demanded and implemented, and it better be fast too since the cities only have 3 days food on average…(by the way I know for a fact that a one world currency can be implemented electronically and turned on in one hour, if they wanted!)
And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It’s dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%!
Don’t think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year.
So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so.
It will be a dark time worldwide.
There is a lot more to say here. Needless to say that will be in our future newsletters for paid subscribers. If you noticed, we have not been publishing as many public articles, and one reason is that our paid people get a great deal more of this analysis than the public articles offer. Obviously. And we have quite a batch of recent newsletters out, that will most definitely intrigue you. They are my best stuff to date.
Lastly, I would like to point out that we have made some astounding predictions over the last two years about the USD and gold and other currencies. If you stop by our site, we’ll have a page showing you them (up hopefully today). We do not make many predictions like that, maybe 2 or 3 a year. But our last batch was quite on the money… you’ll see when you take a look.
By Christopher Laird PrudentSquirrel.com
