September 15th, 2009
MetroMonitor: Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas
Source: Brookings Institution
The American economy continued to weaken during the months of April, May, and June 2009, but it was no longer in free fall. Employment remained on a downward path—the nation lost nearly 1.3 million jobs during those three months alone—and by June, the national unemployment rate had reached its highest rate in more than 15 years, at 9.5 percent. But the pace of economic decline also slowed during the second quarter. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank at an annualized rate of 1 percent, far less than the 6.4 percent rate of contraction during the first quarter of the year. And signs began to emerge that the housing market was stabilizing, with sales of both new and existing single-family homes rising throughout the spring.
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Employer Health Benefits 2009 Annual Survey
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
From press release:
Premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance rose to $13,375 annually for family coverage this year—with employees on average paying $3,515 and employers paying $9,860, according to the benchmark 2009 Employer Health Benefits Survey released today by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research & Educational Trust (HRET).
Family premiums rose about 5 percent this year, which is much more than general inflation (which fell 0.7 percent during the same period, mostly due to falling energy prices). Workers wages went up 3.1 percent during the same period. Since 1999, premiums have gone up a total of 131 percent, far more rapidly than workers’ wages (up 38 percent since 1999) or inflation (up 28 percent since 1999). For the past few years, the annual rise in premiums has been more moderate than the double-digit growth experienced earlier this decade.
As Congress considers health reforms building on the existing employment-based system, the annual Kaiser/HRET survey provides a detailed picture of private health insurance coverage and costs. Selected findings will also be published today as a Web Exclusive in the journal Health Affairs.
The survey found that 60 percent of firms offer health benefits to any of their workers this year. As in the past, the smaller the firm, the less likely it is to offer health benefits—with fewer than half (46 percent) of the smallest employers (three to nine workers) offering health benefits.
Among those firms offering benefits, 21 percent report they reduced the scope of health benefits or increased cost sharing due to the economic downturn, and 15 percent report they increased the worker’s share of the premium.
How Is the Financial Crisis Affecting Retirement Savings? August 2009, Update
Source: Urban Institute
The stock market lost 56 percent of its value between September 30, 2007, and March 9, 2009. These losses reduced the retirement savings of American households. Recently, however, a good portion of these losses has been reversed. Equities gained 53 percent between March 9, 2009 and August 31, 2009.
Criminal Victimization, 2008
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
Presents the annual estimates of rates and levels of personal and property victimization and describes the year-to-year change from 2007 as well as trends for the ten-year period from 1999 through 2008. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) collects information on nonfatal crimes, reported and not reported to the police, against persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. During 2008, 42,093 households and 77,852 individuals were interviewed twice for the NCVS. The report includes data on violent crimes (rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault), property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft and property theft), and personal theft (pocket picking and purse snatching), and the characteristics of victims of these crimes. The report also includes estimates of intimate partner violent crime and use of firearms and other weapons in the commission of violent crime overall.
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Perspectives from the Boardroom—2009
Source: Harvard Business School Working Papers
Chief executives and regulators have been blamed for the current economic crisis, but in some ways what is surprising is that boards have generally escaped notice. Clearly the experience of corporate boards in the downturn has not been explored. To understand what transpired in the boardrooms of complex companies, and to offer a prescription to improve board effectiveness, eight senior faculty members of the HBS Corporate Governance Initiative talked with 45 prominent directors about what has happened to their companies and why. These directors, who serve on the boards of financial institutions and other complex companies, were asked two broad questions: How well did their boards function before the recession? And, what do they believe should be improved as they look to the future?
This white paper first explains how the interviewees characterize the strengths of their boards, then examines in depth six areas in which they identified shortcomings or needs for improvement: 1) clarifying the board’s role; 2) acquiring better information and deeper knowledge of the company; 3) maintaining a sound relationship with management; 4) providing oversight of company strategy; 5) assuring management development and succession; 6) improving risk management. Finally, the paper discusses two issues that appeared not to trouble the interviewees but that the public feels are important: executive compensation and the relationship between the board and shareholders.
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Evaluation of Traffic Data Obtained via GPS-Enabled Mobile Phones: the Mobile Century Field Experiment
Source: UC Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport: A Volvo Center of Excellence
The growing need of the driving public for accurate traffic information has spurred the deployment of large scale dedicated monitoring infrastructure systems, which mainly consist in the use of inductive loop detectors and video cameras. On-board electronic devices have been proposed as an alternative traffic sensing infrastructure, as they usually provide a cost-effective way to collect traffic data, leveraging existing communication infrastructure such as the cellular phone network. A traffic monitoring system based on GPS-enabled smartphones exploits the extensive coverage provided by the cellular network, the high accuracy in position and velocity measurements provided by GPS devices, and the existing infrastructure of the communication network. This article presents a field experiment nicknamed Mobile Century, which was conceived as a proof of concept of such a system. Mobile Century included 100 vehicles carrying a GPS-enabled Nokia N95 phone driving loops on a 10-mile stretch of I-880 near Union City, California, for 8 hours. Data were collected using virtual trip lines, which are geographical markers stored in the handset that probabilistically trigger position and speed updates when the handset crosses them. The proposed prototype system provided sufficient data for traffic monitoring purposes while managing the privacy of participants. The data obtained in the experiment were processed in real-time and successfully broadcast on the internet, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed system for real-time traffic monitoring. Results suggest that a 2-3% penetration of cell phones in the driver population is enough to provide accurate measurements of the velocity of the traffic flow.
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Estimated Value of Service Reliability for Electric Utility Customers in the United States
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Information on the value of reliable electricity service can be used to assess the economic efficiency of investments in generation, transmission and distribution systems, to strategically target investments to customer segments that receive the most benefit from system improvements, and to numerically quantify the risk associated with different operating, planning and investment strategies. This paper summarizes research designed to provide estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the US. These estimates were obtained by analyzing the results from 28 customer value of service reliability studies conducted by 10 major US electric utilities over the 16 year period from 1989 to 2005. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-database describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the US for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. Estimated interruption costs for different types of customers and of different duration are provided. Finally, additional research and development designed to expand the usefulness of this powerful database and analysis are suggested.
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Medicaid Payments Made for Nonemergency Services Provided to Undocumented Aliens and Legal Aliens Restricted to Emergency Services in Texas (PDF; 1 MB)
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General
The Texas Health and Human Services Commission (the State agency) claimed Federal reimbursement for 193 medical claims totaling $262,366 ($160,000 Federal share) and 7,114 prescription drug claims totaling $148,000 ($90,000 Federal share) for services that did not meet the State agency’s definition of emergency care. Additionally, the State agency claimed overpayments totaling at least $37,000 (Federal share) for 350 unallowable family planning services claims at the enhanced Federal medical assistance rate of 90 percent.
Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making?
Source: PLoS Medicine
Summary Points
- Mathematical models can estimate the population-level impact of male circumcision on HIV incidence in high HIV prevalence settings, but different methods, assumptions, and input variables can produce conflicting results.
- UNAIDS/WHO/SACEMA recently convened experts to review the outcomes of six simulation models on key policy and programmatic decision-making questions.
- Large benefits of male circumcision among heterosexual men in low male circumcision, high HIV prevalence settings were found: one HIV infection being averted for every five to 15 male circumcisions performed, and costs to avert one HIV infection ranging from US$150 to US$900 using a 10-y time horizon.
- The models predicted that both premature postoperative resumption of sexual intercourse and behavioural risk compensation, if confined to newly or already circumcised men and their partners, have only small population level effects on the anticipated impact of male circumcision service scale-up on HIV incidence.
- Women benefit indirectly from reduced HIV prevalence in circumcised male partners and male circumcision service scale-up acts synergistically with other strategies to reduce HIV disease burden.
- The modelling results have informed development of a pragmatic decision-makers’ programme planning tool.
Update: Influenza Activity — United States, April–August 2009
Source: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
The first 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infections were identified in the United States in April 2009. By August, the cumulative number of infections in the United States was estimated to be at least 1 million. This report provides an overview of influenza activity during April–August 2009 and recommendations for the upcoming 2009–10 influenza season. Pandemic H1N1 influenza activity peaked in the United States during May and June and declined during July and early August. However, levels of influenza activity remained above normal for summer months, and focal outbreaks were reported throughout the summer. During the last 2 weeks of August, pandemic H1N1 influenza activity increased in certain areas of the United States. Clinicians and public health officials should be aware that these recent increases might signal an early start to the 2009–10 influenza season, with pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses predominating at least initially.
August 2009 Estimates of Monthly GDP : First Three-month Rise in GDP since May 2008
Source: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (UK)
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output rose by 0.2% three months ending in August after a decline of 0.3% in the three months ending in July. This is the first time our GDP indicator has been higher over a three month average since May of 2008 and re- inforces our view that the recession ended in May of this year. There may well be a period of stagnation now, with output rising in some months and falling in others; the end of the recession should not be confused with a return to normal economic conditions.
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Electric Power Storage (PDF; 628 KB)
Source: Congressional Research Service (via OpenCRS)
Unlike natural gas or fuel oil, electricity cannot be easily stored. However, interest in electric power storage (EPS) has been growing with technological advancements that can make storage a more practical means of integrating renewable power into the electricity grid and achieving other operating benefits.
This report summarizes the technical, regulatory, and policy issues that surround implementation of EPS. Electricity storage is one of several non-traditional technologies and methods of meeting power demand that are of current Congressional interest (others include distributed generation, renewable power, and demand response). EPS and these other alternatives do not fit the traditional power industry paradigm, which involves reliance on large scale central power plants and long distance transmission lines to meet demand. This raises the question of how quickly and effectively the power industry and its regulators will be willing to pursue and deploy new approaches. Electricity storage is also currently a relatively high cost technology, another factor which could delay its deployment.
The report identifies several areas for possible cfongressional oversight, including:
- Power industry and state regulator acceptance of storage technologies.
- Integration of storage into transmission system planning, including integration of renewable power into the electricity grid.
- Federal executive agency focus on EPS as a solution to power system needs.
- The application of incentives for electric power storage development included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA; P.L. 111-5).
The report discusses how the provisions of several pending bills relate to the development of electric power storage, including S. 1091, the Storage Technology of Renewable and Green Energy Act of 2009 (STORAGE Act); H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES); and S. 1462, the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 (ACELA).
This report will be updated as warranted.
Press Accuracy Rating Hits Two Decade Low: Public Evaluations of the News Media: 1985-2009
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
The public’s assessment of the accuracy of news stories is now at its lowest level in more than two decades of Pew Research surveys, and Americans’ views of media bias and independence now match previous lows.
Just 29% of Americans say that news organizations generally get the facts straight, while 63% say that news stories are often inaccurate. In the initial survey in this series about the news media’s performance in 1985, 55% said news stories were accurate while 34% said they were inaccurate. That percentage had fallen sharply by the late 1990s and has remained low over the last decade.
Similarly, only about a quarter (26%) now say that news organizations are careful that their reporting is not politically biased, compared with 60% who say news organizations are politically biased. And the percentages saying that news organizations are independent of powerful people and organizations (20%) or are willing to admit their mistakes (21%) now also match all-time lows.
Republicans continue to be highly critical of the news media in nearly all respects. However, much of the growth in negative attitudes toward the news media over the last two years is driven by increasingly unfavorable evaluations by Democrats. On several measures, Democratic criticism of the news media has grown by double-digits since 2007.
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