Typhoons trigger earthquakes on Taiwan: scientists

Jun 10 02:14 PM US/Eastern

Surprised scientists say that typhoons which hit Taiwan unleash long, slow earthquakes, a phenomenon that may save the island from devastating temblors.

Seismologists installed movement sensors in boreholes at depths of 200-270 metres (650-870 feet) in eastern Taiwan, monitoring a spot where two mighty plates, the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian plate, bump and jostle in an oblique, dipping fault.

Over five years, researchers saw a remarkable link between tropical storms and "slow" earthquakes, a seismic beast first identified three decades ago.

Slow quakes entail a slippage in the fault that unfolds progressively over hours or days, rather than a sudden, violent release of the kind that destroys buildings and lives.

The sensors noted 20 such slow earthquakes, 11 of which coincided with typhoons, during the study period.

The 11 quakes were all stronger and characterised by more complex seismic waveforms than other "slow" events.

"These data are unequivocal in identifying typhoons as triggers of these slow quakes. The probability that they coincide by chance is vanishingly small," said co-author Alan Linde of the Carnegie Institution for Science in the United States.

A typhoon causes a fall in atmospheric pressure -- and the researchers suggest that this in turn reduces pressure on the land over the fault.

As a result, one side of the fault lifts slightly, causing the pressure that has been building up inside to be released.

"This fault [in Taiwan] experiences more or less constant strain and stress buildup," Linde said in a press release.

"If it's close to failure, the small perturbation due to the low pressure of the typhoon can push it over the failure limit.

"If there is no typhoon, stress will continue to accumulate until it fails without the need for a trigger."

The typhoon does not work as a seismic trigger on faults that lie on the seabed because water moves into the area, dampening out any difference in pressure, they theorise.

Often considered a curse, typhoons -- for Taiwan -- could in fact could be a blessing.

A storm could act as a pressure valve, preventing strain from building up to the point where the fault ruptures devastatingly.

The Nankai Trough, in southwestern Japan, also lies on the convergence of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates.

The plates are converging at about four centimetres (2.5 inches) per year, which is about half that of the activity in Taiwan.

In theory, Taiwan should be more vulnerable than the Nankai Trough because of the greater slippage, but the record shows that it has had no great earthquakes and relatively few large quakes, said Linde.

By comparision, the Nankai Trough is capable of unleashing a true monster, a magnitude-8 earthquake, every 100 to 150 years.

The paper, published in the British journal Nature, is led by Chiching Liu of the Institute for Earth Sciences at Academic Sinica, Taipei.

Clif High on Rumor Mill News Radio (partial interview) and summary - posted date: Sat, 16 May 2009

http://www.rumormillnewsradio.com/podcast/samples/2009/20090515-clifhigh0.mp3

Rayelen Allen interviewed Clif High about Web Bots on RMN Rayedio May 15: Some highpoints

Clif introduced the web bot concept by explaining that language conveys emotional content as well as factual information. Thus, his web bots were launched when it was realized that stock market decisions were premised in emotional behaviors rather than realistic assessment of factual information. Clif identifies emotionally driven actions as prompted by monkey mind, rather than rational decision-making.

The bots "predicted" 9-11, although the terrorism angle was missed, because Clif had not yet reached the "T's" in the building of his lexicon and the bots could only identify the event as an "accident" connected with the "military" and as was an event which would change us. This summer marks 10 years of bot lexicon, which by now is in need of maintenance work. Half Past Human folks will thus be taking a break in order to overhaul the lexicon and change the search design some to provide more economical reporting.

Economically, the summer will see a continuation of the present; between July 15 and Aug. 15 the derivatives bubble will collapse, followed by the bailout bubble in the fall, after which we may see the dollar collapse-- usable inside the USofA but not viable on the international scene. Meanwhile, the physical universe will get harsher than it already is, with escalation of weather oddities and and crop failures -- which go beyond 2012. Economic pressures will strain the power structure, producing resource wars. It is time to concentrate on one's own needs: produce food locally, for self and family.

Clif then elaborated on monkey mind as one's internal dialogue. He recommended practicing a discipline to open oneself to Universe. He explained that there exists a whole neuronal structure in the intestines, which is where fear lives. Monkey mind articulates the fear in the gut. "Gut-wrenching" is a phenomenon common to all mammals. It is therefore regarded as an archetype and the bots will seek words which describe "gut" reactions, rather than seek the word "fear." This approach is how the bots pick up on really big fears.

A backlash against TPTB is showing up in the data. Clif's monkey mind assesses the form the backlash will take as most likely affecting the media. There are three "control arms" which could take the brunt of the backlash: military; economic/legal; and propaganda. Media, as the propaganda arm, is the weakest point and is thus the probable target of the populus. The MSM will suffer some kind of setback.

After the fall equinox, the PTB will start reacting to the deeds of people and YouTube will suffer.

Emotionally active words have clustered around the concept of "undeniability." A Pollyanna attitude will no longer work; active denial fails -- eg., as weather worsens, global warming cannot be denied -- and a worldwide paradigm shift will take place. Because some people get the picture sooner than others and millions are necessarily involved in this shift, it will take some time for the undeniability process to be completed. Problems which have been ignored can no longer be ignored. Although there is no definitive bot info about the Internet, most likely physical universe via electrical shutdowns or wildfires which disrupt electrical connections will cause disruption.

Individuals are not important: Obama merely began a new wave but he does not create the wave. Bush was merely the end of a wave and change was due to happen regardless. The whole Solar System is in a state of expansion; there are changes now that affect all the planets. There are intrusions and oddities affecting the entire system, which is due to a repetitive EM/gravitational process.

Clif assesses this process as one of our passage through a magnetic rim around the Milky Way, which the Mayans identified as 20 years wide. In other words, the solar system passes upwarde through this rim and then down through it. The entire cycle takes 18,700 years. There is no astrological alignment to Dec. 21, 2012, but the date is a midpoint marker in our journey of passing through the magnetic rim. Global warming is the result of the passage. Clif has corroborated these findings with the Russians. The date also marks an alignment with the Hunab-Ku, which for the Maya represented "the unimaginable consciousness at the center of the galaxy." It is marked by dark matter at the side of the Milky Way. [ed note: I hope I've got that approximately correct!] This is a time of maximum pressure from outside the solar system, which we've been involved with since 1940's. It will be finished in 2031-32.

What's on the other side? Clif pleads ignorance. He says a Spanish priest in 1600 said that drought and infertility for humans, plants and animals -- will plague us; there will be 5 days of "no sun." The no-sun model has been interpreted as a 5-day eclipse, but Clif thinks it is more likely that there will be five days of zero magnetism. There will be "unknown energies from space." Hopefully, it will be the end of an age, but not the end of the world.

Clif then identified the information as coming from the Narmer Plate, which is 19,000 years old. He recommends research on this artifact because it can provide more information about the cycle. (Try googling Narmer or Narma Plate.)

The present is a time of extremes and oscillations, in weather, in earth changes and in DNA: species are already going extinct; monsters are appearing. The earth is being squeezed by the rim. The squeezing action will increase volcanism and earthquake activity. There may be crustal shift as well as magnetic polar shift. Clif claims there is a possibility that the Solar System was once a part of Sagittarius B and thinks that at some point we will become part of the Milky Way, whereupon we will no longer be required to endure the magnetic rim experience. In the meantime, there is no escape from it: forget about flight into space; NASA already knows that food cannot be grown in space and we would eat only what we can carry. Going underground isn't much of an answer, either: menstruation stops after 30 days without sunlight and fertility ceases.

He suggested locating Maurice Cotterel's You Tube videos for more information about the sun's effect on fertility and our ability to grow food. The bots predict a 70 percent reduction in food productivity. Already artificial insemination of food animals is failing. An effort must be made to grow our own food, even if we have to hand pollinate plants. He asserts that It is not necessary to move to a farm. Urban communities have already begun to use vacant buildings and vacant lots to grow food. There are vegetables that will do OK in low level light conditions. Endive is one and it is nutritious.

The energy grid most likely will go down. We have not attended to the electrical infrastructure in decades. We don't even know how to build a transformer anymore. Solar flares will destroy satellites; government is preparing for the eventuality now.

At the same time, a countervailing trend is in evidence -- there are unknowns which the bots place in the "space goat farts" category. These are unknowns that may create a future for us reminiscent of the world the Jetsons inhabited.

Finally, there was discussion about "who is in charge?" The consensus is that no president since JFK has had top security clearance. There are reportedly 27 levels of clearance above Obama. At the very top may be an alien presence. Clif cites as evidence of an exoplanetary influence the almost magical appearance of the transistor, which was not preceded by R&D but which came on the scene soon after the crash of "saucers" in the 1940's. There was discussion of vimanas, which have been around for eons waging air battles. Some say they still are.

Clif thinks that the CERN collider is "chasing unicorns" and ventures that it is for some purpose other than the stated one, and it is one which is probably not good for humanity. It may be connected to exploration of Vril (to power space vehicles).
Fortunately, humans are in reality layers of vibration and Universe will arrange the best possible outcome.

The interview concluded with a discussion of crop circles as communication. Clif's spin software, which can be downloaded free at Halfpasthuman.com, produces an almost meditative state for some; others experience improved sleep, they can lower anxiety and provide pain relief. Swirlies can be viewed at YouTube.


Clif warns, however, that SWIRLIES CAN TRIGGER AN EPILEPTIC SEISURE. THEY SHOULD NOT BE VIEWED IF ONE IS EPILEPTIC.


There was brief discussion of the role of Masons in government throughout American history, but Clif thought Masonry no longer really mattered.

European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre - Update June 10, 2009 at 6:00pm CDT

Date & Time UTC	Latitude degrees		Longitude degrees		Depth km		Mag.		Region name
1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 Back in time
2009-06-10 22:05:46.6	41.71	S	83.75	W	100		mb	4.9	WEST CHILE RISE
2009-06-10 20:57:08.0	40.40	N	71.95	E			ML	3.2	EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
2009-06-10 19:52:38.7	37.86	N	32.06	E	3		MD	2.8	CENTRAL TURKEY
2009-06-10 19:16:16.0	51.70	N	16.11	E	2				POLAND
2009-06-10 18:51:58.4	55.45	N	111.03	E	12		mb	5.0	LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA
2009-06-10 18:25:36.3	46.32	N	1.74	W	4		ML	2.8	FRANCE
2009-06-10 17:57:55.1	41.94	N	142.58	E	80		mb	4.2	HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
2009-06-10 16:23:05.1	39.69	N	28.74	E	20		MD	2.7	WESTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 16:22:28.4	38.23	N	27.36	E	415		ML	2.6	SOUTHERN GREECE
2009-06-10 15:54:55.0	45.11	N	148.20	E	80		mb	5.0	KURIL ISLANDS
2009-06-10 15:53:53.4	39.54	N	20.66	E			ML	3.3	GREECE
2009-06-10 14:56:15.5	38.87	N	29.79	E	5		MD	2.9	WESTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 14:52:26.0	38.11	N	35.55	E	10		MD	2.7	CENTRAL TURKEY
2009-06-10 13:25:41.1	38.76	N	38.15	E	7		MD	3.0	EASTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 13:01:36.8	37.88	N	29.20	E	6		MD	3.0	WESTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 12:47:27.9	41.31	N	22.58	E	4				FYR OF MACEDONIA
2009-06-10 11:34:31.1	48.06	N	2.22	W	2		ML	3.0	FRANCE
2009-06-10 11:25:48.5	37.17	N	39.25	E	30		MD	3.1	EASTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 11:00:00.3	50.21	N	12.71	E	2		ML	2.2	CZECH REPUBLIC
2009-06-10 08:17:47.0	41.27	N	22.69	E	2		ML	2.3	FYR OF MACEDONIA
2009-06-10 08:10:15.6	11.04	S	166.33	E	144		mb	5.0	SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
2009-06-10 06:29:45.8	38.42	N	39.34	E	7		MD	3.2	EASTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 05:17:57.9	39.11	N	42.07	E	14		MD	3.1	EASTERN TURKEY
2009-06-10 04:48:57.2	49.40	N	0.02	W	2		ML	3.0	FRANCE
2009-06-10 04:43:13.0	38.85	N	22.28	E	2		ML	3.2	GREECE
2009-06-10 04:06:38.0	34.70	N	138.44	E	171		mb	4.5	NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2009-06-10 02:52:51.4	6.28	S	128.39	E	327		mb	4.8	BANDA SEA
2009-06-10 02:02:53.4	42.64	N	0.83	E	10		ML	2.6	PYRENEES
2009-06-10 00:46:07.7	36.56	N	21.07	E	1		ML	2.6	SOUTHERN GREECE
2009-06-09 22:55:11.7	35.82	N	52.85	E	7		ML	3.6	NORTHERN IRAN

Space.com | Military Hush-Up: Incoming Space Rocks Now Classified

Railroads furlough more workers in gamble business will improve

Blackbird terrorizes San Francisco city workers in scenes reminiscent of The Birds (video)

Click to view video

TheStatesman.net | INDIA - Prophesy - Coordinator, ex-Mansur Habibullah Memorial School

Astounding Prophesy ~ 2

As the countdown to doomsday continues, we
will experience more natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods and droughts, says Soham Saha

Our Planet Earth is one of the few in the Solar System to have optimum conditions to sustain life. The atmosphere, water and its distance from the sun are obvious reasons as to why evolution of life has taken place successfully on it. There is also the presence of a life saving radiation belt around the planet that effectively blocks dangerous radiation coming from the sun. The belts, known as the Van Allen radiation belts, owe their existence to the presence of the Magnetosphere, or region of space in which our planet’s magnetic field dominates that of the sun.
The solar wind, comprising a stream of electrically charged particles, exerts pressure on the magnetosphere, flowing outward from the sun. The solar wind compresses the magnetosphere on the side towards the sun. The magnetosphere’s boundary is called the magnetopause. It is analogous to the shock wave that builds up around the wing of a supersonic aircraft.
Solar wind particles tend to flow around the magnetopause, but some pass through it. These become trapped in regions called the Van Allen belts. This region extends from a few hundred kilometres above the Earth. For living organisms, the radiation has the general detrimental effects of ionizing radiation, so space missions are generally planned in such a way as to minimize exposure of the astronauts to the most intense regions of the radiation belts.
Solar experts from around the world monitoring the sun have made a startling discovery. The energy output of the sun is, like most things in nature, cyclic and it’s supposed to be in the middle of a period of relative stability. However, recent solar storms have been bombarding the earth with lot of radiation energy. This activity is predicted to get worse. The long term effects could be the alteration of the radiation belts around the earth, resulting in the increasing number of skin cancers and other diseases.
The Earth is surrounded by a magnetic field that shields us from nearly all of the sun’s radiation. Also the magnetic poles we entitle North and South have a nasty habit of exchanging places every 750,000 years or so. Scientists have noted that the poles are drifting apart, roughly 20-30 kms each year, which points to a pole-shift right around the corner. While this is under way, the magnetic field is disrupted and will eventually disappear. The result is enough UV outdoors to crisp your skin in seconds, destroying everything in its course.
The magnetic poles change location with time, a phenomenon also known as polar wandering, and the direction of wandering has been observed to reverse. During geological history the polarity of the Earth’s magnetic field has sporadically reversed. It is a gradual process, and happens roughly every 500,000 years. Recent studies of remnant magnetism in rocks and of magnetic incongruity on the floors of the oceans have shown that the magnetic field of the Earth has reversed its polarity at least 170 times in the past 100 million years. Knowledge of these reversals, which can be dated from radioactive isotopes in the rocks, has had a great influence on theories of continental drift and the spreading of ocean floors.
Measurements of the secular variation show that the entire magnetic field has a tendency to drift westward at the rate of 19 to 24 kms (12 to 15 miles) per year. Clearly the magnetism of the Earth is the result of a dynamic rather than a passive condition, which would be the case if the iron core of the Earth consisted of a magnetized solid material. Iron does not retain a permanent magnetism at temperatures above 540° C and the temperature at the centre of the Earth may be as high as 6650° C. The dynamo theory suggests that the iron core is liquid (except at the very centre of the Earth, where the pressure solidifies the core), and that convection currents within the liquid core behave like individual wires in a dynamo, thus setting up a gigantic magnetic field. The solid inner core rotates more slowly than the outer core, thus accounting for the secular westward drift.
The spin rate of the Earth-Moon system is also affected when the Earth and Moon are closer to the Sun. The slower the spin rate, the stronger is the Earth’s magnetic field. While the detrimental pole shift is underway, the continental arrangement of the Earth undergoes radical changes, thereby providing necessary base for the Continental Drift Theory, and the Plate Tectonics. During this time collision between plates of the Earth are highly likely, causing massive earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and more importantly death of life.
As we continue the countdown to doomsday that’s predicted to occur in 2012, we will begin to experience a number of natural disasters and unprecedented weather events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts and many other extraordinary life threatening natural events. These disasters will become increasingly more frequent and significantly more intense than any we have ever experienced. Along with the increased property damage and economic losses associated with these disasters, the loss of human life will increase exponentially.
In addition to natural disasters, mankind itself will initiate its own near destruction through the use of social, economic, chemical, biological and nuclear warfare.
Science has made reference to a number of possible devastating earthly events such as a Yellowstone super volcanic eruption that could take place in a matter of moments. Other dangers from the sky such as enormous asteroids, increased violent solar activity, emergence of Planet X or Nibiru, and the possible devastating effects of a planetary alignment have been documented and studied by scientists across the world.
All of these have been proven viable and relevant to the times in which we live. Any one of these events or a combination of many would bring unprecedented global destruction. Human life would dramatically be affected and millions, even billions will die. Although no one knows exactly what this coming catastrophe might bring, we can be sure that the outcome will be dire.
We need not look deeper to conclude that something very unusual and very unsettling is taking place all around the world. We are on the verge of facing the wrath of Nature, for we have dared to misuse it. Our social and moral values are on the decline. Our global system of socioeconomic stability is failing at an incredible rate. Our political systems have become increasingly more corrupt and self-serving. The very existence of life will be difficult but we can take consolation from the fact that Mother Nature will once again be sovereign in her ability to rectify what we have so shoddily taken for granted.
Coordinator, ex-Mansur Habibullah Memorial School

StanDeyo.com | Today's News June 10, 2009

Crash Probe: Passengers on Air France Jet Had Terror Links
Texas Struck by 2 More Quakes, Making 5 for the Week
Hires Geologist After Rash of Earthquakes
Earthquakes Shake The Geyers, Calif.
Canada's June Frosts Most Widespread in Recent Memory
Crews Assessing Storm Damage in Southern Illinois
Freak Storm Brings Welsh Town to a Standstill
Scientists: Warming has Already Changed Oceans
US Attempts to Re-Define Switchblades – Would Make Most Pocket Knives Illegal
Whitacre Vows to ‘Learn About Cars’ as Chairman of New GM Board
Travis County, Texas, Cop Tasers 72 Year Old Grandmother + video
No, You Can't Taser an Old Lady Over a Speeding Ticket
Palin Slams Letterman Over Top 10 – video
Betting the Farm
Egypt to Keep Buying Russian Grain Despite Contaminated Batch
FDA Warns on Use of Some Skin Sanitizers
20 Cat Mutilation Deaths Alarm Florida Communities
Dog Fetches Live Grenade
Biggest Black Hole Ever Found in Nearby Galaxy

Yellowstone National Park earthquake update and live Old Faithful webcam | Wed Jun 10 15:00:13 MDT 2009

Link: Old Faithful Live Webcam

*Cave Editor's note: Scroll down below map on linked website to observed quake list.

Link: http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html

Update time = Wed Jun 10 15:00:13 MDT 2009
Here are the earthquakes appearing on this map, most recent at top ...

 MAG    DATE    LOCAL-TIME  LAT     LON    DEPTH    LOCATION
      y/m/d     h:m:s     deg     deg     km

 2.4  2009/06/09 14:03:01 44.397N 110.677W  1.9   45 km (28 mi) SE  of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.8  2009/06/09 06:22:04 44.395N 110.678W  1.8   45 km (28 mi) SE  of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.5  2009/06/09 03:44:53 44.707N 111.189W  0.6    8 km ( 5 mi) NW  of  West Yellowstone, MT
0.4  2009/06/09 03:35:37 44.788N 110.949W  3.3   19 km (12 mi) NE  of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.7  2009/06/07 22:47:21 44.356N 110.928W  3.0   36 km (23 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
0.3  2009/06/07 20:57:53 44.790N 110.993W  1.6   17 km (10 mi) NNE of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.0  2009/06/07 00:39:10 44.581N 110.732W  8.1   31 km (19 mi) ESE of  West Yellowstone, MT
0.6  2009/06/06 18:02:42 44.719N 111.203W 10.1   10 km ( 6 mi) NW  of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.1  2009/06/06 05:08:32 44.330N 110.985W  2.8   34 km (21 mi) SE  of  Island Park, ID
1.6  2009/06/06 03:11:51 44.595N 110.894W  6.5   18 km (11 mi) ESE of  West Yellowstone, MT
1.6  2009/06/06 00:41:26 44.354N 110.932W  2.4   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.7  2009/06/06 00:36:20 44.356N 110.936W  0.2   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.5  2009/06/06 00:29:36 44.357N 110.940W  2.4   35 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.5  2009/06/06 00:12:31 44.357N 110.928W  2.4   36 km (23 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.6  2009/06/06 00:06:55 44.347N 110.944W  2.4   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.9  2009/06/06 00:03:09 44.357N 110.940W  6.1   35 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.4  2009/06/06 00:00:07 44.356N 110.937W  2.2   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.1  2009/06/05 23:46:34 44.337N 110.920W  4.7   38 km (24 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.6  2009/06/05 23:46:10 44.354N 110.931W  2.4   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.5  2009/06/05 23:44:54 44.342N 110.926W  2.9   37 km (23 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.2  2009/06/05 23:37:33 44.358N 110.936W  3.2   36 km (22 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.6  2009/06/05 23:33:38 44.343N 110.927W  2.6   37 km (23 mi) ESE of  Island Park, ID
1.6  2009/06/04 11:44:40 44.768N 111.076W  7.4   12 km ( 7 mi) N   of  West Yellowstone, MT

SteveQuayle.com | HOT HEADLINES - 10June09

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UrbanSurvival.com | Quiet Summer Wednesday - Too Quiet - June 10, 2009

Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily

Wednesday June 10, 2009 7:55 A CDT

This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe.

Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,

Quiet Summer Wednesday - Too Quiet

Yup, life is sure 'normal'...but maybe too normal. Not that I'm the only one with a strange sort of feeling. Here's an email from a reader who catches it too:

"It is too quiet George . I just have a hunch ... here it is - Obama and Geithner toured the world looking for buyers of t-bills for auction this week - result- they scared buyers off more than anything .... auction will be a disaster tomorrow .... markets will see writing on the wall and commence dive .... or just before dive or during, war or some huge other disaster occurs providing cover for auction failure- just a hunch -it is just way too quiet , surreal today "

To be sure, the recent round of flag-raising in other countries doesn't seem to have created much in the way of good will. I mean when Chinese students laugh at an American Treasury Secretary, you know something is up. But what? The candidates might include:

---

The Canadian gold scandal. Right now, it's been reported that the amount of gold missing from the Canada Mint facility is in the 10's of millions of dollars. But, what if the Mounties coming into it reveals that it's a much larger amount? That might shake things up a bit.

---

Won't be triple witching week - that's not till the third Friday of the month which is a week plus two days from now.

---

The Obama administration is seeking the 'fiscal responsibility mantel' which seems a little implausible, but as long as he's the MSM's darling, who knows what rebranding/repackaging will be attempted. Still, not something big in terms of the markets.

---

Now, one thing that may move markets would be a leak that Middle Eastern sources are doing to demand gold for their oil - which has passed $70 a barrel now as the US revised predictions of a $16-barrel gain in the second half of this year. That's a potential upper limit on market action, and if the gold rumor turns out were confirmed, that would pop metals skyward. But would that account for that 'something's not right' feeling? Don't think so.

---

No, I think that what is bothering me - and should be bothering the markets - is that according to the DTCC, there was "$27.8 Trillion of Credit derivatives outstanding as of June 5th" says tyhe Wall Street Journal.

Because the predictive linguistics project has another round of derivatives meltdown coming in the mid July to Mid August timeframe, I think it's important to put some things into perspective on the derivatives front.

The first thing I'd note is that the $27.8 trillion is the notional value of the underlying credit default swaps. The word "notional" means that that the full value (notion) could only become a real debt payable in full at the most extreme of economic conditions. At anything less, they can trade at a discount to notional...sort of analogous to how bonds trade at a discount to face value, is how I understand it.

That this popped up overnight, or even in the past two years, is not a correct assumption. My friend Cliff has many high-powered math friends who have been working lucrative computer programming gigs for the past 4-5 years at some of the biggest outfits in New York, because the pricing models to set CDS values have been stretched so far out of whack, that the modeled prices & values have stopped working.

Remember the AF 447 flight where were were lots of error messages sent before the plane went down? There's an analog in the financial markets about the math and native C guru's being called in several years ago to try and get financial models working right before the first part of the systemic collapse in October of 2008. The second leg down is within a month or two for the next leg down.

At an archetype (or design pattern search) an aware person might notice that in both the financial disaster and the AF 447 crash, black boxes are at the core of developments. The missing ones from AF 447, or in the derivatives disaster, the 'black box financial models' based on long & involved logic chains that humans may not be able to keep up with. Just a curious parallel to me.

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By the way - this grouping of a linguistic/archetype concept (here: black boxes) is what in time monk circles we refer to as a meta layer in the data. Once you see (usually with the help of modelspace, but this morning just using a bit of coffee) you can then taker the linguistically extensible path and go see what else is going on in the meta layer "black box" concept and trip over seeming innocuous headlines like "Progress Apama and Object Trading Ltd sign Partnership" where further detail emerges from the meta layer about the value of 'black boxes":

"The Progress Apama Algorithmic Trading Accelerator enables firms to quickly develop and deploy proprietary algorithmic techniques, achieving a dramatic advantage over commoditized “black box” offerings."

Black boxes are cool, and all, but while it's possible to make generalized trading decisions in advance and apply them in normal market conditions, where such models seem to have a 'soft underbelly' is when multiple assumed trading venues are impacted by extremely nonlinear events. Which means? How does a black box financial model perform under stress of something like the Russian markets closing for a couple of sessions as they did last fall?

Moreover, how do these black boxes work in an arbitrarily constrained market where there's the potential for a combination of closures as well as trading restrictions? Those are the design issues which the math whizzes figure they can deal with.

As we get into the next couple of months - and maybe even as late at October before we see the really BIG public awareness pop on this.

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Oh yeah, one other thing to pop out of this little extensible linguistics exercise: There's a British company that is out with something called the 'RoadHawk' digital driver protection system - a combination of GPS and video set up into a 'black box' for cars and trucks. Care to place a bet that within 5-years, insurance companies will be offering discounts for having this kind of 'black box' technology in your car, so that driver activity as video can be used as evidence in automobile injury cases?

Remember the concepts here: 'Meta layers' in data, extensible archetypical linguistics, and a slice of pie please.

Out From Under the TARP

While 10-banks may be able to get out from under TARP restrictions by repaying $68-billions, turns out Treasury also holds a bunch of warrants which will have to be redeemed, too. That will push the cost of out from under up to $73.1 billion if my pencil is working right this morning.

In some ways it's karmic justice to see banks getting treated like credit card users, but on the other hand, it's sad that they're in this position at all.

Balance of Trade Deficit Shrinking

If there's one good thing about the current international financial mess, it is that the amount of goods being brought into the US is declining and that has started what may be a longer term trend toward self-sufficiency; although speculation in that direction is likely way premature. While up a tad in the latest report out today from the Census Bureau, the increase in the latest figures is but a blip compared to previous Balance of Trade Deficits (BOTD's):

"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total April exports of $121.1 billion and imports of $150.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $29.2 billion, up from $28.5 billion in March, revised. April exports were $2.8 billon less than March exports of $123.9 billion. April imports were $2.2 billion less than March imports of $152.5 billion.

In April, the goods deficit increased $0.9 billion from March to $40.1 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $10.9 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.6 billion to $80.0 billion, and imports of goods decreased $1.7 billion to $120.1 billion. Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion to $41.1 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.5 billion to $30.2 billion.

In April, the goods and services deficit decreased $33.0 billion from April 2008. Exports were down $33.7 billion, or 21.8 percent, and imports were down $66.7 billion, or 30.7 percent.

The thing I keep an eye on - since it seems to me a good indicator of how well America is doing in the high tech area is the Advance Technology Products category:

"Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $18.7 billion in April and imports were $23.4 billion, resulting in a deficit of $4.7 billion. April exports were $2.0 billion less than the $20.7 billion in March, while imports were virtually unchanged at $23.4 billion.'

Damn! Still importing more high tech than we export. "Lead in tech or hit the deck, Lead in food you can be rude..." That's how to simplify econ, I think; poetry.

Boom Times

"28 people have been killed in a South Iraq Market Bombing" reports the NYT.

Also experiencing boom times: Pakistan where 16 are dead in a hotel bombing.

Iran Elections Near

Hardliners versus moderates seems to be the set-up as Iran heads into elections on Friday. Wonder what kind of campaign funding disclosure requirements they have in place?

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Our own Congress has put off the vote apparently on the "Iran Sanctions Enabling Act of 2009" citing the elections. So with any change in the strategic balance internally, I still expect the bombing by Israel to come along toward the end of October. Any reduction in the power base of incumbent president Ahmadinejad will cause reassessment of chances for a peaceful outcome. And then it'll be bombs away, I reckon.

Fair trial before the hanging kinda thing, to put it in frontier justice terms. They just have too much oil for their own good. Strip away the resource, and who'd care?

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Coming After Knives

Oh oh. Forget about the Ammo Shortage I've been telling you about for three years. Forget that the Obama administration has been the best gun sales promotion to hit firearms in decades.

No, seems that new regulations are in the works that would place new and more stringent limits on knives as one of our sharp-eyed readers has sniffed out:

"George. I have read your site for a good while now on Urban Survival. You saved us some $ last Sep. before things collapsed. I subscribe now to Peoplenomics and also bought the recent report from Cliff at HPH for the special.

One thing you have not mentioned so I'll include it. Not that I expect you to keep up with everything or to much focus on a small industry like knife manufacturing and making. I work in that industry. In fact I make folding knives and the very type that are made and covered that would shut me down making what I do both illegal to make in my shop regardless of the fact that I've done it for 20 years plus and also make me a felon for even mailing one or crossing state lines with it. In fact it would make the knives readers carry illegal too! 80% OF THE KNIVES CARRIED TO WORK EVERYDAY BY AMERICANS IS A ONE HAND OPENING CLOSING TYPE OF FOLDER!

Please read more here and post it to get this out. Letters need to be written and mailed to congress and senate. Letters to CBP will do no good that part is bad advice. They are not obligated or inclined to be moved by your contacts.

Thanks

Oh my goodness... a visit to www.kniferights.org turns up this page of interest "US ATTEMPTS TO RE-DEFINE SWITCHBLADES – WOULD MAKE MOST POCKET KNIVES ILLEGAL

Now, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but here's the 63 page proposal which goes on my reading list. However, being no fool, I ordered a couple of one-hand opening Spyderco's off eBay last night. When you live the kind of life I have (10-years on an offshore capable sailboat and now 7-years as a ranch owner) I can't tell you how indispensible a good one-hand opening knife is.

Boy, I can hardly wait for knife registration. Why, next thing you know, we'll all be going to the Outback or Ruth's Chrisd with rubber gloves and just gnaw on the prime rib. We're going back to Medieval times for sure. Which is why Elaine and I joined the folks at www.sca.org, LOL.

And that 'society for creative anachronism' not 'creative anarchy'. We've got the PTB for that.

Retribing

I've made mention many times about the whole 'retribing' thing that seems to be going on, especially with kids in their 20's coming back to the roost to live with mom and dad so they can finish upo schooling which might otherwise not be affordable given rents and falling wages.

So, it's with this in mind that I am not surprised to see that "Home Depot shares jump on raised profit forecast."

As I look at a variety of indicators, such as the Consumer Debt (Credit) report from the Fed and just talk to people, seems like the idea of getting rich though house flipping is pretty much gone, and since I'm not looking for the absolute bottom of the current decline to be in until late 2012 to late 2013 on a purchasing power corrected basis, I think what's going on is that people are trying to make their homes as comfortable as possible for this period.

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A significant sidebar to the retribing/cocooning in the home is seen in computer use trends, too. Lots of growth out there in services like Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, and did you see where Craigslist is now almost up to the $100-million in revenue level?

Again, it goes to the notion that people are finding new - and much less expensive ways - to connect and socialize than the traditional bricks and mortar approach.

Using our 'extensible archetypes' kind of view, it brings into question a lot of old 'bricks and mortar' that may fall - or at least change dramatically.

For example, the nature of how kids date seems to be changing. I noticed when my son was visiting, for example, that he was getting the 'low-down' on what's out her in the East Texas outback by simply hitting local connections of people. In an earlier time, he would have been out every night of his visit, hitting the local bars and night clubs, talking to people, being social and such. But not any longer. Takes too much time. Instead - and admittedly much more efficient, he can chat, revenue the local spots, and then make a one-time trip into town, just to 'people watch' since he's already got a pretty solid girlfriend by the sound of it.

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The trend in how people meet and collect relationships is changing in a big way. For those of us over 50, the old way to meet someone was to go bar-hopping - a practice that over the past 10-years or so has really fallen out of favor due to drinking and riving enforcement. Another way to meet was to pursue your interests and meet at some common ground, such as a gym, or in the case of Elaine and I at the Seattle Singles Yacht Club.

Today's young people, though, they have a way different approach. Research oriented. Read the Facebook, check out the MySpace, look at YouTube. See how someone texts and twitters, first.

Social networking seems to be providing a new way to date; video conference and conversation on Skype and all kinds of other tricks to being single.

I didn't know diddly about the international Couch Surfing group, but again, young people are finding a whole new way to beat hotel costs by couch surfing; or at their site explains "CouchSurfing is a worldwide network for making connections between travelers and the local communities they visit."

Gone, it seems, are those halcyon days of polyester leisure suits and a trip to the local beef & brew, with males like me trying to live out the adventures of Leisure Suit Larry. Just doesn't seem like as much fun sitting in front of a computer, though. Does everything have to go virtual?

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Send comments to george@ure.net

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For Your Money's Worth:

Depression or Recession?

This week, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally a bit more, with some softness to follow come month-end, and then one or possibly two more short moves up into either mid-July or mid-August. And then, I'm figuring the stock market will have completed its setup for another one of those 'once-in-a-lifetime' declines, which seem to be coming with some regularity. This week, a bit of detail on how past Depressions and sharp market drops have looked, and some amplification and detail on my very different way of looking at things'. We'll start with.....

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"Live on $10,000" Updated

What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button: