National Situation Update: Thursday, July 7, 2011
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
Overview
Releases across the Missouri River Basin continue to decrease at Nebraska City and Rulo, NE; however, widespread overtopping of levees continues. Four federal levees and 11 non-federal levees have breeched or overtopped across Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. USACE continues to provide technical assistance and levee repairs in support of local levee sponsors responsible for the Souris and Missouri River basins.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 1:30 a.m. EDT on July 7, the river is at 1,556.6 feet. The flood stage is 1,549 feet. The outflow for Lake Darling measured along the Souris River was 9,170 cfs at 1:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, July 6, 2011. The plan for the next couple of weeks is to reduce stream flows through Minot to 3,300 cfs with anticipated discharges from Lake Darling Dam at 3,000 cfs and local inflows at 300 cfs. The goal is to reach this level of reduced stream flows at the Minot Broadway Bridge before July 19, 2011. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery will begin in mid-July, when the flow will drop to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
All residents in the valley outside of the evacuation zone have been advised to use discretion and take precautions. The mandatory evacuations remain in effect for portions of Ward County. The residents will be allowed to return home when the level at Minot reduces to 1,555 feet. The Broadway Bridge in Minot will be open daily from 8:00 a.m.-9:00 p.m. EDT. Potable water remains a limiting factor in Minot (Ward County) with boil water orders in effect. Trinity Hospital has stretched the capacity of the National Guard supplied water purification unit. The loss of city water will likely result in the evacuation of health care facilities in Minot (Ward County).
Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Zones 1-9 (approximately 12,000 residents)
A Mobile DRC opened on July 5, 2011 in Burlington (Ward County). Three DRCs are operational (2 in Minot and 1 in Bismarck.
North Dakota
North Dakota SEOC is at Level III (normal operations). The Garrison Dam reservoir is expected to remain nearly level for the next several days and then begin to recede. Releases have been reduced to 140,000 cfs.
Significant National Weather
Midwest
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the eastern Dakotas to northern Michigan; some the storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible across northern Oklahoma, much of Kansas, and most of Missouri. Flash Flooding remains possible across much of Kansas through Friday morning.
South
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast from the Mississippi Valley eastward to Virginia, the Carolinas, and southern Florida. Some areas in Florida may see over an inch of rainfall. Western areas of Oklahoma and Texas will be hot and dry worsening current drought conditions. High temperatures will reach 100 to 105 degrees in Oklahoma and much of Texas.
West
Monsoon moisture continues to move into the region, producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Sierras to southern Montana and Idaho and parts of New Mexico. Thunderstorms will also be scattered across eastern Oregon. Some of these thunderstorms could turn severe with damaging winds. Some storms in the Southwest will contain lightning and strong winds, though they will produce little rainfall. Lightning from those dry thunderstorms could produce new fires.
Northeast
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Some of the storms could be severe producing strong winds and hail.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
Area 1
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida, Cuba, and the western Bahamas are associated with a surface trough and tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. This system is expected to drift northward or northeastward with no significant development over the next couple of days. There is a low chance (10%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Area 1
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico have changed little in organization during the last several hours. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two. There is a high chance (70%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph.
Western / South Pacific:
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Earthquake Activity
A magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred offshore, 1,120 miles SSW of American Samoa on July 6, 2011 at 3:03 pm EDT. The depth was 12.4 miles. The earthquake generated a three foot tsunami on Raoul Island (scientific outpost). There have been no reports of damage or injuries. All tsunami warnings and watches have been cancelled.
Fire Activity
Wednesday, July 6, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: HEAVY (321 new fires)
New Large Fires: 6
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 19
Type 1 IMT Committed: 3
Type 2 IMT Committed: 6
States affected: NM, AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, OK, CO, NV & CA
Wildfires
North Carolina
Simmons Road Wildfire – FEMA-2936-FM-NC (approved July 4, 2011)
The fire has consumed 5,400 acres and is 50 percent contained. The evacuation order has been lifted. One shelter has been opened with nine occupants. The fire has destroyed 3 homes and 11 outbuildings.
There have been no fatalities or injuries reported.
New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire – FEMA-2933-FM-NM (approved June 26, 2011)
The fire has consumed 130,691 acres and is 40% contained. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Bandelier National Monument, Conchiti Mesa and Las Conchas. Voluntary evacuations remain in effect for the town of White Rock and Cochiti. Los Alamos started repopulation on July 3, 2011; no significant problems reported since repopulation began. The Federal Aviation Administration has restricted air space in the Los Alamos area to allow for airborne firefighting operations. The USACE facilities at Cochiti Lake are closed through July11, 2011.
The fire has destroyed 63 residences and 32 outbuildings. Approximately 565 residences, outbuildings and commercial buildings remain threatened. Five injuries and no fatalities have been reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity
Amendment #3 was approved to Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1989-DR-OK for the State of Oklahoma dated June 6, 2011. The amendment is effective July 6, 2011 to add Ottawa County for Individual Assistance.
Amendment #5 was approved to Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-3318-EM-ND for the State of North Dakota, closes the incident period effective July 1, 2011.
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
Overview
Releases across the Missouri River Basin continue to decrease at Nebraska City and Rulo, NE; however, widespread overtopping of levees continues. Four federal levees and 11 non-federal levees have breeched or overtopped across Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. USACE continues to provide technical assistance and levee repairs in support of local levee sponsors responsible for the Souris and Missouri River basins.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 1:30 a.m. EDT on July 7, the river is at 1,556.6 feet. The flood stage is 1,549 feet. The outflow for Lake Darling measured along the Souris River was 9,170 cfs at 1:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, July 6, 2011. The plan for the next couple of weeks is to reduce stream flows through Minot to 3,300 cfs with anticipated discharges from Lake Darling Dam at 3,000 cfs and local inflows at 300 cfs. The goal is to reach this level of reduced stream flows at the Minot Broadway Bridge before July 19, 2011. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery will begin in mid-July, when the flow will drop to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
All residents in the valley outside of the evacuation zone have been advised to use discretion and take precautions. The mandatory evacuations remain in effect for portions of Ward County. The residents will be allowed to return home when the level at Minot reduces to 1,555 feet. The Broadway Bridge in Minot will be open daily from 8:00 a.m.-9:00 p.m. EDT. Potable water remains a limiting factor in Minot (Ward County) with boil water orders in effect. Trinity Hospital has stretched the capacity of the National Guard supplied water purification unit. The loss of city water will likely result in the evacuation of health care facilities in Minot (Ward County).
Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Zones 1-9 (approximately 12,000 residents)
- Residents in the Evacuation Zones in NE Minot protected by the secondary dike will be allowed to return when the reading at the Broadway Bridge reaches 1555 feet.
- Voluntary evacuations remain in effect for portions of Morton (182) residents and Burleigh (694 residents).
A Mobile DRC opened on July 5, 2011 in Burlington (Ward County). Three DRCs are operational (2 in Minot and 1 in Bismarck.
North Dakota
North Dakota SEOC is at Level III (normal operations). The Garrison Dam reservoir is expected to remain nearly level for the next several days and then begin to recede. Releases have been reduced to 140,000 cfs.
Significant National Weather
Midwest
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the eastern Dakotas to northern Michigan; some the storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible across northern Oklahoma, much of Kansas, and most of Missouri. Flash Flooding remains possible across much of Kansas through Friday morning.
South
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast from the Mississippi Valley eastward to Virginia, the Carolinas, and southern Florida. Some areas in Florida may see over an inch of rainfall. Western areas of Oklahoma and Texas will be hot and dry worsening current drought conditions. High temperatures will reach 100 to 105 degrees in Oklahoma and much of Texas.
West
Monsoon moisture continues to move into the region, producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Sierras to southern Montana and Idaho and parts of New Mexico. Thunderstorms will also be scattered across eastern Oregon. Some of these thunderstorms could turn severe with damaging winds. Some storms in the Southwest will contain lightning and strong winds, though they will produce little rainfall. Lightning from those dry thunderstorms could produce new fires.
Northeast
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Some of the storms could be severe producing strong winds and hail.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
Area 1
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida, Cuba, and the western Bahamas are associated with a surface trough and tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. This system is expected to drift northward or northeastward with no significant development over the next couple of days. There is a low chance (10%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Area 1
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico have changed little in organization during the last several hours. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two. There is a high chance (70%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph.
Western / South Pacific:
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Earthquake Activity
A magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred offshore, 1,120 miles SSW of American Samoa on July 6, 2011 at 3:03 pm EDT. The depth was 12.4 miles. The earthquake generated a three foot tsunami on Raoul Island (scientific outpost). There have been no reports of damage or injuries. All tsunami warnings and watches have been cancelled.
Fire Activity
Wednesday, July 6, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: HEAVY (321 new fires)
New Large Fires: 6
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 19
Type 1 IMT Committed: 3
Type 2 IMT Committed: 6
States affected: NM, AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, OK, CO, NV & CA
Wildfires
North Carolina
Simmons Road Wildfire – FEMA-2936-FM-NC (approved July 4, 2011)
The fire has consumed 5,400 acres and is 50 percent contained. The evacuation order has been lifted. One shelter has been opened with nine occupants. The fire has destroyed 3 homes and 11 outbuildings.
There have been no fatalities or injuries reported.
New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire – FEMA-2933-FM-NM (approved June 26, 2011)
The fire has consumed 130,691 acres and is 40% contained. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Bandelier National Monument, Conchiti Mesa and Las Conchas. Voluntary evacuations remain in effect for the town of White Rock and Cochiti. Los Alamos started repopulation on July 3, 2011; no significant problems reported since repopulation began. The Federal Aviation Administration has restricted air space in the Los Alamos area to allow for airborne firefighting operations. The USACE facilities at Cochiti Lake are closed through July11, 2011.
The fire has destroyed 63 residences and 32 outbuildings. Approximately 565 residences, outbuildings and commercial buildings remain threatened. Five injuries and no fatalities have been reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity
Amendment #3 was approved to Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1989-DR-OK for the State of Oklahoma dated June 6, 2011. The amendment is effective July 6, 2011 to add Ottawa County for Individual Assistance.
Amendment #5 was approved to Major Disaster Declaration, FEMA-3318-EM-ND for the State of North Dakota, closes the incident period effective July 1, 2011.
http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2011/nat070711.shtm
