National Situation Update: Monday, July 11, 2011
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
Overview
USACE continues to manage releases from the Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, Big Bend, Fort Randall and Gavins Point reservoirs. All six reservoirs are expected to maintain or decrease their current release rates over the next few days; however, overtopping of levees continues. Four federal levees and 12 non-federal levees have breeched or overtopped across Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. USACE continues to provide flood fight supplies and technical assistance to levee districts and communities across the Missouri River Basin. The Belcher-Lozier Levee overtopped on July 7. The levee is part of a system that protects 12,200 acres of land and over 100 residences in Hardin, MO. U.S. Highway 65 remains open; the MO Dept of Transportation is sandbagging a 2 mile stretch of US-65 today in an effort to keep the highway open. As of July 8, 2011, one of two Amtrak Train “Missouri River Runner” round trips between St. Louis and Kansas City, MO was temporarily suspended at least through July 12, 2011, due to diversion of additional Union Pacific Railroad freight traffic from flooded rail tracks.
Kansas
The MRLS-R-500 agricultural levee along the Missouri River located northeast of Highland, KS is projected to have less than 2 feet of freeboard in the coming days as the Missouri River continues to rise. This levee is being closely monitored for potential structural issues.
Iowa
The MRLS-L-601 Watkins Ditch RB (Right Bank) agricultural levee along the Missouri River is located west of Tabor’ USACE is projecting this levee will have less than 2 feet of freeboard in the coming days. This levee is also being closely monitored for potential structural issues.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 3:30 a.m. EDT on July 11, the river was at 1,554.66 feet, below the Major Flood Stage of 1,555 feet. The river is expected to remain at approximately this level through Monday and then continue to recede. The outflow for Lake Darling measured along the Souris River at Foxholm is 8,730 cfs and USACE will continue to cut flows by 1,000 to 2,000 cfs daily or every other day, until the conservation pool is reached or conditions warrant different action. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery will begin in mid-July, when the flow is expected to drop to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
The mandatory evacuations remain in effect for portions of Ward County. With river below 1,555 ft, more evacuees were allowed to return to their homes and more evacuees are expected to return to their homes as the water continues to recede. Half of the city’s 25 sewage lift stations are flooded and not operational; only 3 of the remaining lifts are operating at 100%. Potable water remains a limiting factor in Minot (Ward County) with boil water orders in effect. USACE received the Mission Assignment for temporary housing site design and began the review of possible sites recommended by the City of Minot.
North Dakota
There are three shelters open supporting 285 occupants.
Significant National Weather
South
Very hot and humid weather is expected across the Southern Plains and Mid-South this week, producing dangerous heat index readings at or above 110 degrees, primarily during afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures are forecast to be up to 15 degrees above average, with highs ranging from the 90s in the Southeast to over 100 degrees from the lower Mississippi Valley westward. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches have been issued across much of the region. Thunderstorms will develop today from the Texas Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Some severe storms are possible, with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain.
Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today for much of the interior, with a few severe storms possible tonight in western parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Rain should begin to move towards the coast during the evening and overnight hours. Hotter than average temperatures are expected across the region, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Midwest
Above average temperatures are expected for much of the region today, with excessive heat expected across parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures in the 90s and 100s are forecast in many areas and Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches have been issued for much of the region. Most areas will have a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Some severe thunderstorms are possible today from the western Plains to the Upper Ohio Valley. Another storm complex is expected to develop in the Plains on Tuesday and slowly move southward. Some severe thunderstorms will develop from Iowa into the Ohio Valley.
West
Thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight from the Four Corners northward to Montana. Some severe storms, capable of producing heavy rainfall and lightning, are expected across portions of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. A few showers and thunderstorms are also possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest. As a result of high temperatures, strong southwesterly winds, and low humidity, Red Flag Warnings are in effect today along the western Nevada Sierra Front.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Area 1
On July 11, at 2:00 a.m. EDT, an area of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remains nearly stationary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this system have been persistent for the past 18 hours. However, strong upper level winds in the vicinity of this disturbance appear to be unfavorable for significant development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Earthquake Activity
On June 10, 2011, at 9:58 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred 53 miles east-northeast of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico at a depth of 2.8 miles. No damages or injuries were reported.
Fire Activity
Sunday, July 10, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: MODERATE (237 new fires)
New Large Fires: 9
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 22
Type 1 IMT Committed: 4
Type 2 IMT Committed: 4
States affected: NM, AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, OK, CO, OR, NV, & AK
Wildfires
New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire – FEMA-2933-FM-NM (approved June 26, 2011)
The fire has consumed 146,353 acres and is 45% contained. The fire is located thirteen miles west of Los Alamos, NM. The Bandelier National Monument, Kasha-Katuwe Tents Rocks National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest, and the Valles Caldera National Preserve remain closed. The USACE facilities at Cochiti Lake are closed through July11, 2011. The Federal Aviation Administration restricted air space in the Los Alamos area to allow for airborne firefighting operations.
The fire has destroyed 63 residences and 32 outbuildings. Approximately 565 residences, outbuildings and commercial buildings remain threatened. One Type 1 IMT committed to this fire. Five injuries and no fatalities have been reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
Overview
USACE continues to manage releases from the Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, Big Bend, Fort Randall and Gavins Point reservoirs. All six reservoirs are expected to maintain or decrease their current release rates over the next few days; however, overtopping of levees continues. Four federal levees and 12 non-federal levees have breeched or overtopped across Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. USACE continues to provide flood fight supplies and technical assistance to levee districts and communities across the Missouri River Basin. The Belcher-Lozier Levee overtopped on July 7. The levee is part of a system that protects 12,200 acres of land and over 100 residences in Hardin, MO. U.S. Highway 65 remains open; the MO Dept of Transportation is sandbagging a 2 mile stretch of US-65 today in an effort to keep the highway open. As of July 8, 2011, one of two Amtrak Train “Missouri River Runner” round trips between St. Louis and Kansas City, MO was temporarily suspended at least through July 12, 2011, due to diversion of additional Union Pacific Railroad freight traffic from flooded rail tracks.
Kansas
The MRLS-R-500 agricultural levee along the Missouri River located northeast of Highland, KS is projected to have less than 2 feet of freeboard in the coming days as the Missouri River continues to rise. This levee is being closely monitored for potential structural issues.
Iowa
The MRLS-L-601 Watkins Ditch RB (Right Bank) agricultural levee along the Missouri River is located west of Tabor’ USACE is projecting this levee will have less than 2 feet of freeboard in the coming days. This levee is also being closely monitored for potential structural issues.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 3:30 a.m. EDT on July 11, the river was at 1,554.66 feet, below the Major Flood Stage of 1,555 feet. The river is expected to remain at approximately this level through Monday and then continue to recede. The outflow for Lake Darling measured along the Souris River at Foxholm is 8,730 cfs and USACE will continue to cut flows by 1,000 to 2,000 cfs daily or every other day, until the conservation pool is reached or conditions warrant different action. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery will begin in mid-July, when the flow is expected to drop to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
The mandatory evacuations remain in effect for portions of Ward County. With river below 1,555 ft, more evacuees were allowed to return to their homes and more evacuees are expected to return to their homes as the water continues to recede. Half of the city’s 25 sewage lift stations are flooded and not operational; only 3 of the remaining lifts are operating at 100%. Potable water remains a limiting factor in Minot (Ward County) with boil water orders in effect. USACE received the Mission Assignment for temporary housing site design and began the review of possible sites recommended by the City of Minot.
North Dakota
There are three shelters open supporting 285 occupants.
Significant National Weather
South
Very hot and humid weather is expected across the Southern Plains and Mid-South this week, producing dangerous heat index readings at or above 110 degrees, primarily during afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures are forecast to be up to 15 degrees above average, with highs ranging from the 90s in the Southeast to over 100 degrees from the lower Mississippi Valley westward. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches have been issued across much of the region. Thunderstorms will develop today from the Texas Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Some severe storms are possible, with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain.
Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today for much of the interior, with a few severe storms possible tonight in western parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Rain should begin to move towards the coast during the evening and overnight hours. Hotter than average temperatures are expected across the region, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Midwest
Above average temperatures are expected for much of the region today, with excessive heat expected across parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures in the 90s and 100s are forecast in many areas and Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches have been issued for much of the region. Most areas will have a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Some severe thunderstorms are possible today from the western Plains to the Upper Ohio Valley. Another storm complex is expected to develop in the Plains on Tuesday and slowly move southward. Some severe thunderstorms will develop from Iowa into the Ohio Valley.
West
Thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight from the Four Corners northward to Montana. Some severe storms, capable of producing heavy rainfall and lightning, are expected across portions of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. A few showers and thunderstorms are also possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest. As a result of high temperatures, strong southwesterly winds, and low humidity, Red Flag Warnings are in effect today along the western Nevada Sierra Front.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Area 1
On July 11, at 2:00 a.m. EDT, an area of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remains nearly stationary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this system have been persistent for the past 18 hours. However, strong upper level winds in the vicinity of this disturbance appear to be unfavorable for significant development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Earthquake Activity
On June 10, 2011, at 9:58 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred 53 miles east-northeast of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico at a depth of 2.8 miles. No damages or injuries were reported.
Fire Activity
Sunday, July 10, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: MODERATE (237 new fires)
New Large Fires: 9
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 22
Type 1 IMT Committed: 4
Type 2 IMT Committed: 4
States affected: NM, AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, OK, CO, OR, NV, & AK
Wildfires
New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire – FEMA-2933-FM-NM (approved June 26, 2011)
The fire has consumed 146,353 acres and is 45% contained. The fire is located thirteen miles west of Los Alamos, NM. The Bandelier National Monument, Kasha-Katuwe Tents Rocks National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest, and the Valles Caldera National Preserve remain closed. The USACE facilities at Cochiti Lake are closed through July11, 2011. The Federal Aviation Administration restricted air space in the Los Alamos area to allow for airborne firefighting operations.
The fire has destroyed 63 residences and 32 outbuildings. Approximately 565 residences, outbuildings and commercial buildings remain threatened. One Type 1 IMT committed to this fire. Five injuries and no fatalities have been reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 11-Jul-2011 08:05:44 EDT
http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2011/nat071111.shtm
http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2011/nat071111.shtm
