National Situation Update: Monday, July 18, 2011 Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is constructing a 4.5 mile seepage berm to protect a wastewater treatment plant in Bellevue, NE. The Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage at many locations and is forecast to remain high in much of NE and IA until fall. The USACE, Omaha District, will temporarily halt releases from the regulating tunnels at Garrison Dam to perform a routine inspection of the tunnel walls Monday. The Bismarck-Mandan areas may see a slight reduction in the river stage. The anticipated stage reduction is estimated at less than two tenths of a foot.
Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases as of Monday, July 18 are as follows:
Fort Peck: 40,000 cfs
Garrison: 120,000 cfs
Oahe: 140,000 cfs
Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs.
Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs
River levels continue to remain level or slowly decline across the Missouri River Basin. However, the main stem of the Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage in many locations.
Missouri
There are structural concerns for 4 Federal and 14 non-Federal levees in MO.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND Current Situation
As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.88 feet. The river is forecast to stabilize at this level for the next 48-72 hours. As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, flow from Lake Darling Dam into the Souris River was at 4,590 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
Boil water orders have been lifted for all of the 4 designated areas outside the flooded area.
The removal of temporary dikes/levees is underway in Minot.
North Dakota
Four DRCs and one mobile DRC are operational in North Dakota.
Three shelters are open with 390 occupants.
Major Heat Wave Continues, Expands Eastward By Midweek
Very hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Prolonged heat and humidity have lead to very uncomfortable and potentially dangerous conditions, which will continue through the middle of this week. High temperatures through Wednesday will be in the middle 90s to lower 100s. These temperatures, in addition to high humidity, will combine to create heat indices of 105 to 115 degrees each afternoon. Overnight heat indices will only fall to around 80 degrees which will not provide much relief from the uncomfortable conditions.
Midwest
The heat wave continues for much of the region, with hotter than average temperatures and humidity expected for most of the region through Wednesday. Excessive heat warnings are in effect from the eastern Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the 80s near the Great Lakes to around 105 in southwestern Kansas and central South Dakota. Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley through the Great Lakes, into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats along with locally heavy rainfall. Under 1 ½ inches of rain is forecast for the Great Lakes today.
Northeast
Severe thunderstorms are possible over the New England and the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats from this system. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Most areas will be in the 80s & 90s, with 70s in northern New York and Northern New England.
South
The heat continues across the Southern Plains while the Southeast should have near average temperatures. Highs will range from around 80 in the higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains to the 100s in much of Texas and Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from West Texas to the central Gulf Coast and across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance of storms should be along the central Gulf Coast, with locally heavy rainfall up to 1 ½ inches.
West
Hotter than average temperatures is forecast for most areas east of the Continental Divide. Highs will range from around 60 along the Northern California Coast to the 110s in the deserts of southeastern California and southern Arizona. High fire danger is expected in parts of Nevada and Utah. Red Flag conditions are forecast from central Nevada to central California. Strong southerly winds up to 25 mph with gust exceeding 30 mph is possible. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Rockies to the High Plains. Showers are expected to move into the Pacific Northwest into tonight.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic
Tropical Storm Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 65 miles northwest of Great Abaco Island and moving toward the east at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Bret is expected to be moving north-northwestward later today. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
Eastern Pacific
Invest 94 – At 2:00 a.m. EDT, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of the border of El Salvador and Guatemala has increased during the past few hours. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. This system has a high chance, 60 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 mph.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Fire Activity
Sunday, July 17, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (94 new fires)
New Large Fires: 5
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 23
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, OK, NM, NV, UT, OR and CA.
Wildfires
No significant activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is constructing a 4.5 mile seepage berm to protect a wastewater treatment plant in Bellevue, NE. The Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage at many locations and is forecast to remain high in much of NE and IA until fall. The USACE, Omaha District, will temporarily halt releases from the regulating tunnels at Garrison Dam to perform a routine inspection of the tunnel walls Monday. The Bismarck-Mandan areas may see a slight reduction in the river stage. The anticipated stage reduction is estimated at less than two tenths of a foot.
Missouri River Basin Flooding
Dam Releases as of Monday, July 18 are as follows:
Fort Peck: 40,000 cfs
Garrison: 120,000 cfs
Oahe: 140,000 cfs
Big Bend: 140,000 cfs
Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs.
Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs
River levels continue to remain level or slowly decline across the Missouri River Basin. However, the main stem of the Missouri River remains at Moderate to Major Flood Stage in many locations.
Missouri
There are structural concerns for 4 Federal and 14 non-Federal levees in MO.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND Current Situation
As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.88 feet. The river is forecast to stabilize at this level for the next 48-72 hours. As of 10:00 p.m. EDT on July 17, flow from Lake Darling Dam into the Souris River was at 4,590 cfs.
Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
Boil water orders have been lifted for all of the 4 designated areas outside the flooded area.
The removal of temporary dikes/levees is underway in Minot.
North Dakota
Four DRCs and one mobile DRC are operational in North Dakota.
Three shelters are open with 390 occupants.
Major Heat Wave Continues, Expands Eastward By Midweek
Very hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Prolonged heat and humidity have lead to very uncomfortable and potentially dangerous conditions, which will continue through the middle of this week. High temperatures through Wednesday will be in the middle 90s to lower 100s. These temperatures, in addition to high humidity, will combine to create heat indices of 105 to 115 degrees each afternoon. Overnight heat indices will only fall to around 80 degrees which will not provide much relief from the uncomfortable conditions.
Midwest
The heat wave continues for much of the region, with hotter than average temperatures and humidity expected for most of the region through Wednesday. Excessive heat warnings are in effect from the eastern Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the 80s near the Great Lakes to around 105 in southwestern Kansas and central South Dakota. Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley through the Great Lakes, into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats along with locally heavy rainfall. Under 1 ½ inches of rain is forecast for the Great Lakes today.
Northeast
Severe thunderstorms are possible over the New England and the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Hail and wind will be the main severe threats from this system. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Most areas will be in the 80s & 90s, with 70s in northern New York and Northern New England.
South
The heat continues across the Southern Plains while the Southeast should have near average temperatures. Highs will range from around 80 in the higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains to the 100s in much of Texas and Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from West Texas to the central Gulf Coast and across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance of storms should be along the central Gulf Coast, with locally heavy rainfall up to 1 ½ inches.
West
Hotter than average temperatures is forecast for most areas east of the Continental Divide. Highs will range from around 60 along the Northern California Coast to the 110s in the deserts of southeastern California and southern Arizona. High fire danger is expected in parts of Nevada and Utah. Red Flag conditions are forecast from central Nevada to central California. Strong southerly winds up to 25 mph with gust exceeding 30 mph is possible. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Rockies to the High Plains. Showers are expected to move into the Pacific Northwest into tonight.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic
Tropical Storm Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 65 miles northwest of Great Abaco Island and moving toward the east at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Bret is expected to be moving north-northwestward later today. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
Eastern Pacific
Invest 94 – At 2:00 a.m. EDT, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of the border of El Salvador and Guatemala has increased during the past few hours. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. This system has a high chance, 60 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 mph.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Fire Activity
Sunday, July 17, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (94 new fires)
New Large Fires: 5
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 23
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, OK, NM, NV, UT, OR and CA.
Wildfires
No significant activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 18-Jul-2011 09:07:30 EDT
