National Situation Update: Friday, July 22, 2011
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
The flood waters have reached a steady state throughout most of the basin and the focus is on monitoring and reinforcing existing levees. Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, and Big Bend Dams reductions in releases have led to declining water levels and less water moving downstream.
There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings in Region VII since July 11, 2011. There are potential overtopping concerns on 4 Federal and 13 non-Federal levees in the basin. These levees are forecast to have less than 2’ of freeboard.
The State of Missouri and local/federal partners will discuss flood fight concerns on Monday, July 25, 2011. Additionally, daily coordination calls will be reduced to three times a week (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday).
Missouri River Basin Reservoir Releases
Dam Releases projected for Thursday, July 21:
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT on July 22, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.5 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period. Evacuation zones have reopened and residents have begun returning home. Boil water orders continue to be lifted in the previously effected boil zones. USACE contractors have removed 249 tons of debris. The Broadway Bridge in Minot remains open from 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. CDT.
North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 362 (-8) occupants.
Significant National Weather
A dangerous heat wave continues across much of the central and eastern U.S.
Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect for much of the central U.S. and Ohio River Valley as well as areas from the eastern Carolinas northward into southern New England. High temperatures combined with oppressive humidity levels will create heat indices between 105 to 120 degrees during the afternoon hours. See www.weather.gov/largemap.php
West:
Precipitation will be limited to some rain and thunderstorm activity in western Washington, northern Idaho and eastern Montana associated with a cold front. The Southwest Monsoon will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms to Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for western Utah. The desert Southwest will see temperatures in excess of 100 degrees this afternoon.
Midwest:
Two fronts draped across the region will produce severe thunderstorms from eastern Montana to the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats. There is the possibility of flash flooding, primarily in North Dakota, but other areas will see significant precipitation and the Upper Mississippi Valley could receive an inch or more of rain. Temperatures will range from the 80s to over 100.
South:
High heat and humidity continue across the entire region. High temperatures will range from 90 to 100. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region
Northeast:
High temperatures today should reach the 90s and 100s with 80s in northern New York and New England. Precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms should be limited to interior sections of the Mid Atlantic and northern New England.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Bret was located about 320 miles northwest of Bermuda, moving toward the northeast near 21 mph. This general motion and increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Bret is forecast to gradually weaken by tonight and dissipate in a day or so.
Tropical Storm Cindy - At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Cindy was located about 805 miles northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast near 29 mph. This motion is expected to continue the next couple of days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Cindy should dissipate within the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
Area 1 - At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a Tropical Wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Upper level winds are expected to gradually become a little more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance over the next couple of days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours, as it moves toward the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Regardless of development, brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds associated with this wave could begin spreading across portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.
Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Dora - At 2:00 a.m. EDT July 22, Category Three Hurricane Dora was located about 210 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and moving northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora would remain offshore of the southern Baja California Peninsula, but Tropical Storm conditions could reach portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 120 mph with higher gusts; continued weakening is forecast through tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.
Western Pacific
Tropical Storm 08W (MA-ON) is dissipating and the final warning has been issued.
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Fire Activity
Thursday, July 21, 2011:
Wildfires
No significant activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity
Massachusetts
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary
The flood waters have reached a steady state throughout most of the basin and the focus is on monitoring and reinforcing existing levees. Fort Peck, Garrison, Oahe, and Big Bend Dams reductions in releases have led to declining water levels and less water moving downstream.
There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings in Region VII since July 11, 2011. There are potential overtopping concerns on 4 Federal and 13 non-Federal levees in the basin. These levees are forecast to have less than 2’ of freeboard.
The State of Missouri and local/federal partners will discuss flood fight concerns on Monday, July 25, 2011. Additionally, daily coordination calls will be reduced to three times a week (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday).
Missouri River Basin Reservoir Releases
Dam Releases projected for Thursday, July 21:
- Fort Peck: 35,000 cfs
- Garrison: 120,000 cfs
- Oahe: 140,000 cfs
- Big Bend: 137,200 cfs
- Fort Randall: 156,000 cfs
- Gavins Point: 160,000 cfs (On Monday, August 1, 2011 Gavins Point is expected to reduce releases from 160,000 cfs to 150,000 cfs and maintain this new release rate through at least August 12, 2011; additional releases thereafter from Gavins Point are still to be determined.)
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding – Minot, ND
Current Situation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT on July 22, the Souris River at Minot was below flood stage at 1,548.5 feet and is forecast to remain below flood stage for the forecast period. Evacuation zones have reopened and residents have begun returning home. Boil water orders continue to be lifted in the previously effected boil zones. USACE contractors have removed 249 tons of debris. The Broadway Bridge in Minot remains open from 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. CDT.
North Dakota
Three shelters were open with 362 (-8) occupants.
Significant National Weather
A dangerous heat wave continues across much of the central and eastern U.S.
Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect for much of the central U.S. and Ohio River Valley as well as areas from the eastern Carolinas northward into southern New England. High temperatures combined with oppressive humidity levels will create heat indices between 105 to 120 degrees during the afternoon hours. See www.weather.gov/largemap.php
West:
Precipitation will be limited to some rain and thunderstorm activity in western Washington, northern Idaho and eastern Montana associated with a cold front. The Southwest Monsoon will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms to Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for western Utah. The desert Southwest will see temperatures in excess of 100 degrees this afternoon.
Midwest:
Two fronts draped across the region will produce severe thunderstorms from eastern Montana to the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats. There is the possibility of flash flooding, primarily in North Dakota, but other areas will see significant precipitation and the Upper Mississippi Valley could receive an inch or more of rain. Temperatures will range from the 80s to over 100.
South:
High heat and humidity continue across the entire region. High temperatures will range from 90 to 100. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region
Northeast:
High temperatures today should reach the 90s and 100s with 80s in northern New York and New England. Precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms should be limited to interior sections of the Mid Atlantic and northern New England.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression Bret – At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Bret was located about 320 miles northwest of Bermuda, moving toward the northeast near 21 mph. This general motion and increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Bret is forecast to gradually weaken by tonight and dissipate in a day or so.
Tropical Storm Cindy - At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Cindy was located about 805 miles northwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast near 29 mph. This motion is expected to continue the next couple of days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Cindy should dissipate within the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
Area 1 - At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a Tropical Wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Upper level winds are expected to gradually become a little more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance over the next couple of days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours, as it moves toward the west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Regardless of development, brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds associated with this wave could begin spreading across portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.
Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Dora - At 2:00 a.m. EDT July 22, Category Three Hurricane Dora was located about 210 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and moving northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora would remain offshore of the southern Baja California Peninsula, but Tropical Storm conditions could reach portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 120 mph with higher gusts; continued weakening is forecast through tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.
Western Pacific
Tropical Storm 08W (MA-ON) is dissipating and the final warning has been issued.
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Fire Activity
Thursday, July 21, 2011:
- National Preparedness Level: 2
- Initial attack activity: LIGHT (198 new fires)
- New Large Fires: 2
- Large Fires Contained: 2
- Uncontained Large Fires: 19
- Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
- Type 2 IMT Committed: 5
- States affected: NC, GA, TX, OK, AZ, NM, WY, CA, and ID.
Wildfires
No significant activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity
Massachusetts
- FEMA-1994-DR-MA; Amendment # 1, effective July 21, 2011, adds two Townships for Public Assistance.
Last Modified: Friday, 22-Jul-2011 08:56:19 EDT
